Poll shows most GOP voters back Trump 2024 bid

A narrow majority of Republican voters say they would support former President Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill. 

The poll shows 52 percent of GOP voters back Trump, who has floated a potential comeback in 2024 after losing to President Biden in November.

That makes him far and away the favorite for his party’s presidential nod; former Vice President Mike Pence placed second with 18 percent support, while former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley came in third with only 7 percent support.

If Trump ultimately decides against another presidential bid, however, it’s Pence who picks up the most support, according to the poll. 

Forty-one percent of GOP voters surveyed said they prefer Pence for the nomination if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) takes second place in that scenario, garnering 16 percent support, while Haley remains in third with the backing of 10 percent of GOP voters.

The poll suggests that more than a month after leaving the White House, Trump remains the most influential Republican in the country, commanding the support of a loyal base of voters. Despite his loss in November, nearly two-thirds of GOP voters — 64 percent — believe that Trump actually won and that the election was stolen from him, a false claim that the former president has repeatedly made.

Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Fla., on Sunday, Trump hinted at a possible 2024 run, while echoing his baseless claim that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election. 

“I may even decide to beat them for a third time,” Trump said, referring to Democrats.

Meanwhile, most voters — 61 percent — believe that Biden will serve only one term in the White House, while about 39 percent of respondents say they expect the 78-year-old president to run once again in 2024.

But there’s a stark partisan divide when it comes to Biden’s future political plans.

Sixty percent of Democratic voters believe that he will seek a second term in office, while 40 percent say he will be a one-term president. Eighty-two percent of Republicans, on the other hand, believe Biden will not run for a second term, while only 18 percent say he will.

“Trump could well be the Republican nominee again if he decides to run again as no one else yet has a strong enough national profile in the party,” Mark Penn, the director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey, said. “But it’s far from a sure thing for him, and most believe he won’t get the chance to have a rematch against Joe Biden. Only Democrats think Biden will run for a second term.” 

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey of 2,006 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 23 to 25. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll.

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.