Exclusive poll: Biden leads in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in the swing states of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania less than a week out from Election Day, according to a new Hill/Harris battleground poll.

The data could serve as a warning sign for Trump, who won all three states in 2016.

“Joe Biden’s position in key swing states going into the final week suggests that Trump has so far been unable to generate enough momentum to close the gap,” said pollster Mark Penn.

“All three states remain in toss up range but increasing virus cases and massive Biden expenditures are making it hard for trump to gain traction,” he added.

Florida

Biden leads Trump by 3 points in Florida, 50 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Three percent said they were unsure or did not know.

The data is reflective of other recent polling out of the Sunshine State showing a narrow contests.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday showed Biden up by 3 points in Florida, 45 percent to 42 percent. 

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden up by 7.7 percentage points.

While Biden continues to lead with Hispanic voters, his campaign is actively working to appeal more to Hispanic communities in the state given the narrow race unfolding.

Fifty-four percent of Hispanics polled in the state said they supported Biden, while 43 percent said they supported Trump, according to the poll.

“In Florida, Trump has a strong Latino vote for a Republican but has problems with senior women concerned about the [coronavirus],” Penn said.

Both candidates were out in force in Florida on Thursday, with Biden holding events in Tampa, which is located at one end of the state’s crucial I-4 corridor. The former vice president also held a rally in Broward County, Fla. 

Biden noted concerns about the coronavirus in the state on Thursday, pledging that he would work to “shut the virus down.”

Fifty-five percent of Florida voters said they believe Biden will do a better job at handling the pandemic, while 45 percent said they same about Trump, according to the poll.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 51 percent to 46 percent, according to the poll. Three percent said they were not sure or did not know who they would vote for.

Biden also led in a Quinnipiac survey released on Thursday, showing him up 51 percent to 44 percent over the president. 

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden leading Trump by 4.3 points.

Trump campaigned in the Keystone State on Monday, focusing on economic and energy issues.

The state was key to Trump’s unexpected victory four years ago when he narrowly won the state by roughly a point.

Trump’s campaign had spent time appealing to the white working class population in the state, which many said was widely ignored by the Democrats.

The latest battleground poll shows Trump leading with 51 percent of white voters, while Biden is close behind at 46 percent support from the voting bloc.

Penn noted Trump’s strong support among rural Pennsylvania voters, but acknowledged Biden’s strength in the suburbs.

“In Pennsylvania, Trump has strong rural support but is being pinned down by Biden in the suburbs, where the Democrat leads by a wide margin,” he said. 

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Biden’s lead is much narrower, as he leads Trump 49 percent to 48 percent. Three percent of respondents said they were not sure.

The results match up with other recent polling in the Tar Heel State. Biden leads by just 0.6 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

The poll showed a stark racial divide in the state, with 60 percent of white voters saying they supported Trump and 38 percent supporting Biden. Ninety-one percent of Black voters said they supported Joe Biden and only 6 percent said the same for Trump.

“In North Carolina, Trump is getting little to no black vote and is down in the suburbs to make a should win state close,” Penn said.

Biden cruised to victory through the southeast in the Democratic primary earlier this year, thanks in large part to his galvanization of the Black vote in the region. Democrats are hoping that large turnout from the group will help Biden get the same results in November.

Biden also holds a 10 point lead over Trump among Latinos, 42 percent to 52 percent.

The Hill/Harris battleground polls were conducted online among likely voters by Harris within Florida (1,148 likely voters), North Carolina (903 likely voters), and Pennsylvania (901 likely voters) between Oct. 26-29. 

Results were weighted among registered voters for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, education, political party, locale, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population and then filtered by likely voters.