Poll shows Trump, Biden statistically tied in Iowa

President Trump and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) are statistically tied with their Democratic challengers in Iowa less than two weeks out from Election Day, according to a new Monmouth University Poll survey released on Wednesday. 

The poll shows Trump garnering 48 percent of the vote to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 47 percent, putting the two candidates well within the survey’s 4.4-percentage-point margin of error. The race is now much closer than it was in September, when a similar Monmouth poll found Trump with a 50 percent to 44 percent lead over Biden.

But Biden gains the advantage under different likely voter turnout models. In a higher-turnout model, the former vice president leads Trump 50 percent to 47 percent, while a model accounting for lower turnout puts Biden ahead 51 percent to 46 percent. 

In the state’s closely contested Senate race, Ernst and Democrat Theresa Greenfield are deadlocked at 47 percent each among Iowa voters, indicating that the contest has remained stable since last month when a previous Monmouth poll showed them tied at 47 percent.

Similar to the presidential match-up, however, Greenfield pulls ahead under both higher and lower likely voter turnout models, according to the poll. With higher turnout, Greenfield leads Ernst 49 percent to 47 percent, while in a lower turnout model, she leads 51 percent to 45 percent.

Iowa has emerged as one of the most competitive states in the country, both in terms of the presidential race and in the battle for control of the Senate, despite Trump carrying the Hawkeye State by a nearly 10-point margin in 2016. 

“Republican campaigns face two challenges here,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Not only do they need a bigger [Get Out The Vote] effort on Election Day, but any breaking developments that could help them may be too late.”

“Still, we are looking at a couple of very tight races that could go either way,” he added.

Biden now leads Trump 54 percent to 41 percent in the 13 Iowa counties where the vote margins were closest in 2016. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carried those counties by a combined 1 point four years ago, and a Monmouth poll released last month showed Trump ahead 52 percent to 45 percent among voters in those areas.

Biden has also expanded his lead among voters 65 and older from 50 percent last month to 54 percent in October. Still, Trump holds the advantage with voters aged 18-49 — 50 percent to 44 percent — as well as with those aged 50-64, at 51 percent to 45 percent.

The Monmouth University Poll surveyed 501 registered Iowa voters by phone from Oct. 15-19. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.