Biden leads Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in a new University of Wisconsin-Madison poll that surveyed voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three Rust Belt battlegrounds states that Trump won in 2016.

The former vice president has a 50-42 lead among registered voters in Michigan and 49-44 leads over Trump in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. When surveying likely voters, Biden’s lead narrows, but he remains near the 50 percent mark. Likely voters favor Biden by a 51-45 margin in Michigan, a 49-45 margin in Pennsylvania and a 50-46 margin in Wisconsin.

A plurality of 47 percent of likely Biden voters said the coronavirus pandemic is the most important issue facing the country, while 37 percent of likely Trump voters said the economy was the top issue, followed by 24 percent who said the same of crime.

The survey is part of a study that interviewed respondents from July 27 to Aug. 6 and then re-interviewed those same people from Sept. 10 to 21. Most demographics remained largely steady between the two interviews, only moving a point or two between the two interviews. Trump appears to have closed the gap among independents, trailing Biden 42-51 in August then narrowly leading 47-46 in September.

The polls come as all three states are set to again play an outsized role in the 2020 election, with Democrats eager to rebuild their “blue wall” after Trump won all three in 2016 over then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Either Biden or Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Biden’s running mate, has visited each one of the states in recent days, and Democrats were buoyed by down ballot successes in the states in the 2018 midterms, including victories in high-profile gubernatorial races in Michigan and Wisconsin. 

Trump has also returned to the campaign trail in recent weeks, holding regular rallies in states key to his reelection campaign.

The University of Wisconsin-Madison poll surveyed 800 people in each state. The margin of error of registered voters is 4.66 points in Michigan, 4.28 points in Pennsylvania and 4.21 points in Wisconsin. The margin of error of likely voters is 4.71 points in Michigan, 4.73 points in Pennsylvania, and 4.46 points in Wisconsin.