Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 13 points among registered voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll.
The Monmouth University survey of Pennsylvania finds Biden at 53 percent compared to Trump at 40 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 3 percent saying they will vote for someone else.
Ninety-three percent of Democrats say they support Biden, compared to 84 percent of Republicans who say they support Trump, who won Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016 and became the first GOP presidential candidate to carry the state since 1988. Biden leads by more than 20 points among independents, 54 to 33.
Biden also leads 54 percent to 35 percent in the so-called swing counties where the race was closest in 2016. Biden leads 68 percent to 26 percent in the counties that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won by wide margins in 2016, while Trump leads 55 percent to 40 percent in the counties he won easily in 2016.
Biden leads by 30 points among voters under the age of 50, and he leads by 10 points among voters over the age of 65. The president leads by 13 points among voters between 50 and 65 years old.
Trump has a 16 point lead among white voters without a college degree. Biden leads by 27 points among whites with a college education. He leads by 60 points among racial minorities.
Republican Rep. Mike Kelly (Pa.) said this week that polls in Pennsylvania can’t be trusted because they don’t take into account Trump’s support from those who turned out to vote for the first time ever in 2016.
Kelly argued that “likely voter” models used by many pollsters are not sampling those first-time voters.
But Trump actually does better in Monmouth’s “likely voter” model than he does when Monmouth tested all registered voters in the state.
When Monmouth considered a high-turnout election of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 10 points. When Monmouth considered a low-turnout election of likely voters, Biden’s lead falls to 7 points.
“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016.”
Trump and the Republicans have also argued that there is a “social desirability bias” in the polls because so-called shy Trump voters are embarrassed to admit they support the president over fears they’ll be ostracized by their family, friends or co-workers.
The Monmouth survey found that 57 percent of all voters in Pennsylvania believe there are secret Trump voters in their community.
Fifty-four percent of registered voters said they were surprised when Trump won in Pennsylvania in 2016, and Pennsylvanians are divided evenly over who they believe will win the state in 2020.
“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016,” said Murray. “The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020.”
Monmouth’s new survey found Biden’s lead to be larger than other recent polls. Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average. A recent survey by Trafalgar Group, which accounts for the so-called shy Trump voters, found Biden ahead by 5 points.
The Monmouth survey of 401 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted between July 9 and July 13 and has a 4.9 percentage-point margin of error.