Tight race brewing in Nebraska House contest: internal poll

A tight race is brewing in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as Democrats are hopeful that progressive Kara Eastman can put up a stiff challenge to Rep. Don Bacon (R).

According to an internal poll from the Eastman campaign that was obtained exclusively by The Hill, Eastman has the support of 50 percent of likely general election voters, compared with 49 percent for Bacon. The results are similar to those of a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll conducted in May showing a narrow 48-47 margin in Eastman’s favor.

The battle between Eastman and Bacon is a rematch from 2018, when Bacon narrowly won reelection by 2 points in the Omaha district. Eastman won the Democratic nomination in May over attorney Ann Ashford, a centrist who is married to former Rep. Brad Ashford (D).

“I am happy to see in these numbers what I am hearing in talking to voters: that folks no longer want a Trump rubber stamp representing them in Congress,” Eastman said in a statement to The Hill.

Eastman, who is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue list, also posted a strong financial haul in the second quarter of the year, bringing in more than $715,000. The average donation for April-June was $21.51, and she’s raised more than $1.5 million thus far this cycle.

However, she will still face an uphill battle in the fundraising war against Bacon, whose roughly $765,000 bank account was exponentially larger than hers at the end of the first quarter.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is also expected to be hotly contested in the presidential race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Trump. The Cornhusker State partially divides its electoral votes along congressional lines, and the fight for the Omaha district’s single electoral vote is expected to be very competitive.

According to the Eastman campaign’s poll, Biden is leading Trump there 51-44, indicating Bacon is running ahead of the president.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates the House race in the 2nd Congressional District as “lean Republican” and the presidential race there as “lean Democrat.”

The Eastman campaign’s survey, conducted by GQR, polled 502 likely voters from June 30 to July 5 and has a margin of error of 4.37 percentage points.