Poll: Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points in a new national poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 53 percent, compared to Trump at 41 percent.

Biden’s lead has grown steadily over the past few months, from 3 points in March, to 4 points in April, to 9 points in May and 12 points presently.

Fifty percent of all voters say they’re certain they will not vote for Trump, compared to 39 percent who said they’re certain they will not vote for Biden. Forty percent of Biden’s supporters say they’re certain they’ll vote for him, compared to 34 percent of Trump’s supporters.

Sixty-two percent of white voters with a college degree have ruled out voting for Trump, and 61 percent of racial minorities have done the same. Fifty-six percent of white voters without a college degree say it is extremely unlikely they will support Biden.

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term.”

Biden is a far more popular candidate than Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s previous nominee, was at this point in 2016.

Biden’s favorability rating is at 44 positive and 44 negative, up from 42 positive and 49 negative last month. At this point in 2016, Clinton stood at 34 positive and 52 negative.

Trump’s favorability rating is at 38 positive and 55 negative. At this point in 2016, Trump was at 31 positive and 53 negative.

In 2016, Trump performed well among voters who held a negative view of both candidates. But these “double negative” voters are breaking for Biden this year by a 55 to 21 margin.

“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year,” Murray said. “Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change.”

Trump and Biden have been attacking each other’s mental fitness for office.

The Monmouth survey found that 52 percent of voters are at least somewhat confident that Biden has the mental and physical stamina needed to be president, compared to 45 percent who said the same of Trump.

However, 33 percent said they’re very confident Trump has the physical and mental stamina needed, compared to 23 percent who said they’re very confident in Biden.

Seventy-two percent of Republicans said they’re very confident about Trump’s mental and physical acuity, while only 47 percent of Democrats said they’re very confident about Biden’s mental and physical acuity.

“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters,” said Murray. “This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic.”

The Monmouth University of 867 U.S. adults was conducted from June 26 to June 30 and has a 3.6 percentage point margin of error.