Ernst challenger leads by 3 points in tight Iowa Senate race

Theresa Greenfield, a Democrat challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa, is leading by 3 percentage points in the state’s Senate race, a new Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

The survey showed that 46 percent of likely voters say they would back Greenfield if the election were held today, while 43 percent say they would back Ernst.

The poll, which surveyed 674 likely voters from June 7 to June 10, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, underscoring how tight the race could be going into the November election.

The poll found that Greenfield, like most Democrats, polls higher among women and nonreligious voters. 

Among nonreligious voters, 71 percent back Greenfield and 19 back Ernst. Among women, 54 percent back Greenfield and 34 percent back Ernst. 

Republicans and Democrats largely responded to the survey along party lines, with independents more likely to back Greenfield than Ernst, 42 percent to 38 percent. 

The Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “lean Republican,” but a survey released last month from the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling showed Ernst leading Greenfield by just 1 point. 

President Trump tweeted his support for Ernst on Thursday. 

Few people have ever fought as strongly for Iowa as Senator @JoniErnst! A combat Veteran, her service to Iowa and our Country is remarkable! Joni is Strong on Crime, our Military, Vets, Low Taxes and will protect your #2A at all times…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 11, 2020

The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump GOP super PAC, released an ad on Wednesday targeting Ernst, suggesting she’s done little to stop big spending in Washington, an issue she ran on in 2014.