Democratic group’s poll finds Biden leading in five of six key battleground states

New data from a top Democratic group finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump in five of the six core battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the 2020 election.

The survey from Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC, says Biden would win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona if the election were held today. Florida would be too close to call.

That projection gives 305 Electoral College votes to Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared to 204 for Trump, leaving Florida’s 29 hanging in the balance.

Priorities USA Chairman Guy Cecil stressed the projection is based on today’s polling, which finds Trump near the low point of his presidency amid civil unrest, economic upheaval and the coronavirus pandemic. 

The analysis is not a prediction of what will happen in November.

Cecil noted that if white working class voters and people of color turn out by 3 points less for Democrats than Priorities USA has forecast, Biden would lose Florida and North Carolina, with Pennsylvania and Arizona falling into toss-up territory. 

That would put Biden at 259 Electoral College votes and Trump at 248, with 31 up for grabs.

“Structurally, while we’ve seen improvements, this race continues to be close when it comes to the balance of the Electoral College,” Cecil said. 

“The overall numbers still are relatively close,” he added. “We still have multiple states that are within that two- to three-point range.” 

The Priorities USA poll of nearly 3,500 voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida finds Trump’s job approval rating deep underwater at 41 percent positive and 55 percent negative, down from 45 percent positive and 49 percent negative earlier this year. 

Sixty percent of voters disapprove of how Trump has handled the protests around the death of George Floyd. Nearly two-thirds said the president has inflamed tensions in the country.

Fifty percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing on the economy, but a majority, 53 percent, disapprove of how he’s handled the coronavirus pandemic.

The Priorities USA survey found that Democrats have erased the enthusiasm gap that has plagued Biden for much of the year. Eighty percent of Republicans said they’re very motivated to vote, compared to 77 percent of Democrats.

Biden leads Trump by 20 points or more on the question of temperament and the issue of health care. He leads by 10 points or more on the question of “caring about people like you” and who would be better at helping the middle class. 

Priorities USA has a budget of $200 million this cycle and the super PAC has already plowed tens of millions of dollars in advertising into the six core battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida. 

The Priorities USA analysis found the Trump campaign is spending more money on national television advertisement buys than it is defending the key states where the race is very close. 

The data found that the Trump campaign is closing in on having spent $20 million in national ad buys over the past 17 months, compared to about $7 million it has spent in Pennsylvania.

Since April 1, the Trump campaign has spent nearly $6 million in Pennsylvania, compared to about $5 million nationally. 

“The Trump campaign has spent most of their resources on national TV buys,” Cecil said. “Whether this is a fundraising ploy or whether this is to somehow address the president’s obsession with the fact that he lost the popular vote in 2016, the fact of the matter is the Trump campaign has wasted a lot of money on national buys,” Cecil said.

Priorities USA has effectively kept pace with the spending of the Trump campaign and pro-Trump outside groups in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Priorities USA has outspent the Trump campaign and allied groups by about a 2-1 margin.