Poll: Biden leads Trump by 7 points in Arizona

A new survey finds former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7 points in Arizona, which has not gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since former President Clinton carried it in a three-way race in 1996.

The latest OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) survey finds Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 43 percent. Biden has held a steady lead in the Grand Canyon State since March, with the past three OHPI polls finding him up by between 6 and 9 points.

The Biden campaign says Arizona is at the top of its list of traditionally red states where it plans to compete. Arizona is also home to a competitive Senate race, with Democrat Mark Kelly leading Sen. Martha McSally (R) in a race that will have consequences for the balance of power in the Senate.

Trump visited Arizona last week for his first trip outside of Washington since the coronavirus lockdown.

“President Trump is going to have to do a lot more than parachute into Arizona to boost his sagging numbers,” said OHPI chief of research Mike Noble. “With six months to go until Election Day, Trump is going to have to invest heavily in Arizona to pull out a victory in The Grand Canyon State.”

Fifty-three percent of Arizonans have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 45 percent view Biden negatively. Among the group of voters who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably, 63 percent say they’ll support Biden, compared to only 6 percent who say they’ll support Trump.

In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was far more unpopular than Biden is now. Trump won the election when late-deciding voters, many of whom had negative views of both candidates, cast their ballots for him.

“As this election heats up and negative ads from both sides pour into Arizona, the share of voters who dislike both candidates is sure to rise,” said OHPI data analyst Jacob Joss. “Who they end up supporting will be a determining factor come November.”

The OH Predictive Insights survey of 600 likely general election voters was conducted from May 9 to May 11 and has a 4 percentage point margin of error.