Poll: Biden leads Trump by 3 points in Wisconsin

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slim 3-point lead over President Trump in Wisconsin, according to a new Marquette Law School poll released on Tuesday, suggesting a tight race in one of the most contested Midwestern states of 2020. 

The poll shows Biden with 46 percent support among registered voters in Wisconsin, while Trump trails with 43 percent. 

Driving Biden’s lead is his support among the youngest voters — those ranging from 18 to 29 years old — who prefer the former vice president to Trump, 51 percent to 41 percent, and the oldest voters — those 60 and older — who back Biden over Trump 55 percent to 37 percent.

Among voters 30 to 44 years old, 49 percent said they support Trump, while 37 percent chose Biden. And among those 45 to 59, 48 percent said they prefer Trump compared to the 41 percent who said they support Biden. 

Biden also holds wide leads over Trump among white, college-educated women — 63 percent to 33 percent — and nonwhite voters – 63 percent to 23 percent, according to the Marquette Law School poll. 

Biden’s 3-point overall lead over Trump largely tracks with Marquette’s last survey conducted in March, which showed the former vice president leading by 3 points, with 48 percent support. 

Wisconsin is one of the most fiercely contested states in the 2020 presidential election. It was once part of the Democrats’ so-called blue wall in the Midwest, where the party believed ancestral Democratic voters would hand them solid victories in presidential contests. 

But Trump upset Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016 when he won Wisconsin by less than 1 point. He won similar victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two other states that Democrats are eager to recapture in 2020. 

Despite Trump’s win in Wisconsin four years ago, Democrats believe that the state is shifting in their favor. Democrat Tony Evers won a narrow victory over the state’s incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker in 2018, dealing a major blow to a state executive once seen as a rising star in the GOP. That same year, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) beat Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by double digits in the state’s Senate contest.

Just last month, Democratic-backed candidate Jill Karofsky ousted conservative incumbent Daniel Kelly in Wisconsin’s closely watched state Supreme Court race.

The Marquette Law School poll surveyed 811 registered Wisconsin voters by phone from May 3-7. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.