Professor with history of correctly predicting elections says it’s ‘the incumbent’s election to lose’

A professor of political science with a history of accurately predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections said either Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will win the primary or the Democratic National Committee will face a brokered convention in July. 

Allan Lichtman from American University is the co-creator of “The Keys to the White House,” a forecast model used to predict nine previous elections, according to The Independent.

“I think the most likely outcomes are Sanders wins or nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years, we actually have a convention nominating the candidate,” he said.

The prediction model also indicated that “it is generally speaking the incumbent’s election to lose,” according to The Independent.

The professor said the model is not designed to forecast primaries, but there are signs that the upcoming Democratic convention could be a brokered one. 

A brokered convention could happen if no Democratic candidate wins more than half of the 1,990 pledged delegates by the end of the primary race.

Prediction forecasts by FiveThirtyEight indicate Sanders has the best chance of winning more than half of the pledged delegates, but he has only a 32 percent chance of doing so. The model currently suggests a higher chance, 51 percent, that nobody will receive a majority of delegate votes, according to the FiveThirtyEight.

Lichtman said a brokered convention could result in damage between constituents and representatives of the Democratic Party but none that would limit the chances of the party’s victory in November.

“Internal party fights only count when it is in the party holding the White House,” Lichtman said. “The challenging party can fight all they want, and it has no impact. Look at the bitter battle by the Republicans in 2016 — it was much worse than what is happening with the Democrats this time. They were saying terrible things about each other, and they still won.”

Sanders is currently leading the other candidates with 45 delegates. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg holds 25, former Vice President Joe Biden has 15, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has eight and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) holds seven.

With the South Carolina primary on Saturday, 44 delegates are on the table for candidates. The upcoming March 3 Super Tuesday elections have more than 1,300 delegates eligible up for grabs.

The four-day Democratic National Convention will determine the candidate to take on President Trump in the November general election and will be in Milwaukee July 13 to July 16.