Harris campaign memo lays out path to victory in November

A memo from Harris campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon published Wednesday argues the vice president is in “a strong position” to win in November, citing her ability to expand the coalition that put her and President Biden in the White House and her appeal to persuadable voters.

“With a popular message, a strong record on the issues that matter most to swing voters, multiple pathways to 270 electoral voters, and unprecedented enthusiasm on her side, the Vice President is in a strong position to take on Donald Trump and win in 104 days,” O’Malley Dillon wrote in a memo shared with reporters.

O’Malley Dillon cited three main reasons for Harris’ strong footing: Her support from 2020 Biden-Harris voters, her ability to expand that coalition, and the fact that the change atop the Democratic ticket could allow her to reach undecided voters. The campaign has also boasted significant enthusiasm, noting it raised $126 million between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

The memo cited Harris’ strong support with key blocs in the Democratic base, specifically with Black voters, Latino voters, women and young voters. The memo cited a Quinnipiac University poll that showed Harris running 54 points ahead of former President Trump among Black voters, as well as internal polling that showed Harris faring better than Trump or Biden among Latino voters.

O’Malley Dillon argued Harris is poised to expand upon the 2020 base, particularly because of the issue of abortion. Since the 2020 election, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, making abortion a top issue for millions of voters. Harris has been the face of the White House’s efforts to protect abortion access and attack Republicans for enacting restrictive bans on the procedure, something the campaign argued will allow her to bring even more voters into the fold.

“These voters supported Democrats in battleground states in 2022, and they will be critical to hold onto in 2024,” O’Malley Dillon wrote.

O’Malley Dillon also argued the race has become “more fluid” in light of Harris becoming the likely nominee instead of Biden, giving her an opportunity to appeal to the sliver of undecided voters who may not be as familiar with her as they are with Biden and Trump.

“This expanded universe of winnable voters is highly accessible to Vice President Harris: We have a clear advantage on issues, they have been supportive of Democrats in the past, and many are supportive of Democrats down-ballot,” O’Malley Dillon wrote. “It is the job of the Harris campaign to win these voters, but the pathway to do so is clear.”

The Harris campaign is still expected to focus much of its attention on the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which Harris can ill afford to lose in November. Biden carried all three in 2020 en route to victory.

But O’Malley Dillon argued North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are still in play thanks to Harris’ advantages with young voters and minority voters, giving the campaign multiple pathways to 270 votes.

The Harris campaign also touted its significant grassroots enthusiasm that has been on display since Sunday, when Biden announced he would not seek reelection and backed Harris to be the nominee instead.

Harris’ campaign has raised more than $126 million as of Tuesday evening, O’Malley Dillon wrote in the memo. Harris’ rally on Tuesday in Milwaukee was the campaign’s largest of the cycle, drawing more than 3,000 people. And more than 100,000 volunteers have signed up to join the campaign since Sunday afternoon. 

“This campaign will be close, it will be hard fought, but Vice President Harris is in a position of strength – and she’s going to win.

Republicans have quickly pivoted to attacking Harris on immigration in particular, branding her the “border czar” of the Biden administration. While that is not an official title Harris ever held, it is a reference to her assignment to address the root causes of migration in the Northern Triangle region as detentions surged at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Some Republicans have been less subtle, attacking Harris in racist and sexist terms and calling her a diversity hire. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has urged his conference to steer clear of those attacks.

“This election … is going to be about policies, not personalities. This isn’t personal with regard to Kamala Harris,” Johnson said in a press conference Tuesday. “Her ethnicity, her gender, has nothing to do with this whatsoever.”