How the Trump campaign is pivoting toward a Harris candidacy

The Trump campaign is grappling with a new political reality as it prepares to face a new opponent in November.

Former President Trump and his allies made little secret of the fact they hoped President Biden would stay in the race as he mulled his future, viewing him as a weakened candidate who polls showed was trailing badly across several battleground states. Biden on Sunday said he would not seek reelection and endorsed Vice President Harris to be the nominee instead.

Top Trump campaign officials have been quietly preparing for such a possibility in recent weeks, and they argued putting Harris atop the ticket would do little to change the race. The campaign has already launched ads accusing Harris of misleading the public about Biden’s fitness for office and resurfaced clips from the 2020 Democratic primary of potentially unpopular stances she took.

But some Republicans have acknowledged the shake-up will provide at least a short-term boost to Democrats and could make the race in November more competitive. 

“The dynamic has shifted, but it is still Trump’s to lose. But the quicker that we come to the realization that she is the opponent, the better,” former Trump White House press secretary Sean Spicer said.

Spicer argued Republicans should not waste their time calling for Biden to resign, both because he is unlikely to do so and because if he did, Harris could have some additional advantages as an incumbent president.

In the hours after Biden’s announcement, Trump took to social media mostly to complain about the president dropping out.

“So, we are forced to spend time and money on fighting Crooked Joe Biden, he polls badly after having a terrible debate, and quits the race. Now we have to start all over again,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Shouldn’t the Republican Party be reimbursed for fraud in that everybody around Joe, including his doctors and the Fake News Media, knew he was not capable of running for, or being, President? Just askin’?”

Polling for months had shown a stagnant race between Trump and Biden, with the former president leading in most battleground states, and the closest swing state contests taking place in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the so-called blue wall.

One Republican lawmaker who spoke to The Hill predicted Harris likely would get an initial polling bump if and when she becomes the Democratic nominee, but they argued Trump was still in a strong position to win in November.

There is limited polling available for a Harris-Trump match-up, but there are signs the vice president may appeal more to certain key voting groups.

An internal Biden-Harris campaign poll reviewed by The Hill found Harris faring better than Biden and Trump among key segments of Latino voters, including young voters and undecided voters.

A New York Times/Siena College poll taken earlier this month showed Harris down 1 percentage point to Trump in Pennsylvania and leading Trump by 5 percentage points in Virginia, improving on Biden’s margin.

A top Trump campaign official brushed aside the idea that their operation was geared specifically toward beating Biden or that it would not be able to adapt.

“Our organization is built for our candidate, not our opposition. Our team lives in the world of the unknown and unprecedented…as the past 1.5 years have demonstrated,” Trump campaign political director James Blair posted on the social platform X.

“The other side now has to shove a new candidate into a team & organization built for someone else,” he added. “Best of luck.”

Still, Democrats have undeniably been revitalized by Biden’s decision to step aside. Lawmakers have rallied around Harris in droves, donors have pledged millions to back her candidacy on Sunday and Monday, and Democrats are likely to dominate headlines in the days and weeks to come as Harris picks a running mate.

And Harris’s campaign raised a staggering $81 million in the 24 hours after Biden said he would not seek reelection, a sign of Democratic enthusiasm as the campaign takes on a new course.

“The historic outpouring of support for Vice President Harris represents exactly the kind of grassroots energy and enthusiasm that wins elections,” Harris campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said in a statement. “Already, we are seeing a broad and diverse coalition come together to support our critical work of talking to the voters that will decide this election.” 

The selection of a swing state governor, like Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro (D), could give Democrats a further boost in a must-win battleground state.

Trump, meanwhile, chose Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, a move that was viewed largely through the lens of shoring up his base more than winning over moderate or independent voters with a choice like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

Vance on Monday hit the trail for his first solo campaign events since becoming the party’s vice presidential nominee. He held a “hometown” event in Middletown, Ohio, where he accused Harris and other Democrats of lying to the public about Biden’s mental fitness.

“Every single person who saw Joe Biden knew he wasn’t capable of doing the job, and for three years they said nothing until he became political dead weight,” Vance said. “That is not a way to run a country. That is not a way to run a political party. That is an insult to voters.”

That has been one part of a three-pronged attack that has emerged from the Trump campaign to target Harris as she emerges as the likeliest opponent. Trump’s campaign and Republicans have also labeled Harris the “border czar” over her handling of the root causes of migration and tied her directly to the Biden administration’s handling of inflation.

“We’re ready, and we’ve been ready,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller. “Kamala Harris will not be able to outrun the Harris-Biden record or her radical leftist record from the California days.”