The Memo: Harris closes in on Democratic nomination

Vice President Harris by late Sunday was consolidating the necessary support to become the Democratic presidential nominee after President Biden’s momentous decision to step aside.

But even if she claims that prize, the war to win November’s general election will be much tougher.

A party that has endured a collective spasm of trauma since Biden’s debate disaster against former President Trump in Atlanta on June 27 appears to have little appetite for further drama.

That’s likely to help Harris take the crown as Biden’s successor.

The list of credible challengers to Harris was always short, and it soon grew shorter still. Two big names — California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) — endorsed her. 

The chances of a serious left-wing candidate emerging are vanishingly small too, after key progressives including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) also offered Harris their backing.

There was some chatter late Sunday about Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) exploring the possibility of getting into the race. 

But Manchin’s conservatism, his dalliance with the “No Labels” ticket earlier this year, and his general penchant for showboating make him widely disliked in the party he left in May. 

It’s not clear Manchin could meet the threshold required to become an official candidate. Such an effort necessitates obtaining the signatures of at least 300 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, set for Chicago one month from now.

That leaves Harris within reach of history.

She has already notched several firsts as vice president — the first woman, first Black person and first person of South Asian descent to hold the position. 

Now, the presidency itself beckons.

It still may be a climb to get there.

Talk about the need for a meaningful contest for the Democratic crown if Biden stepped down had reverberated within the party before the president’s decision.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who reportedly supports the idea that a new nominee should be tested through some kind of competitive process, has not endorsed Harris. Neither has former President Obama.

Still, their reticence Sunday could also be seen as a disinclination to be seen as anointing a nominee, and as respectful to Biden.

Harris was the favorite to succeed Biden if he stepped down, and Sunday night that sense had only solidified. CNN commentator Van Jones described her as a “steamroller.”

The bigger challenge for Harris is stark and basic — can she beat Trump in November?

In the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Harris trails Trump by 2 points. It’s a margin not significantly different from where Biden stood against Trump when he decided to bow out of the reelection race.

Harris’s boosters say she can make up ground quickly. She will receive massive media attention, her party wants to unite after being mired for almost a month in division and chaos, and activists and donors will bring fresh excitement and money.

That may be true. But it’s not the whole story.

The memory of Harris’s deeply underwhelming 2020 campaign for the presidency lingers. She dropped out of the race that year before even making it to the first primary contest in Iowa.

The fundamental problems in that race have bedeviled her before and since — the question of authenticity, what she really believes and what strand of Democratic politics she represents.

Harris has also been a top target in conservative media for years. The attacks have sharpened and grown more personal during her years as vice president, encompassing her sense of humor, her speaking style and her fondness for sometimes-nebulous rhetoric. 

Trump, at a rally in Michigan on Saturday, mocked her laugh. Trump’s top campaign advisers, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, responded to Biden’s exit Sunday with a statement that asserted, “Kamala Harris is just as much of [a] joke as Biden is.”

Harris loyalists have long complained about the superficiality of many of these attacks, and have contended that the vice president is held to different standards as a Black woman than is the case for white or male political figures.

Be that as it may, the attacks have had an effect. Harris’s favorability rating in The Hill/DDHQ’s polling average is very poor — just 38 percent of Americans view her in a positive light, while 56 percent view her negatively.

On top of all that, there is the vexing question of how many Americans might still harbor biases against electing the first Black female president.

Polling on such a loaded social question is notoriously difficult. 

Obama, of course, made history as the first Black president, defying prejudices and predictions along the way. On the other hand, a number of female candidates in recent years have fared more poorly than expected, including Harris and Warren in 2020 and, infamously, Hillary Clinton in the 2016.

The path in front of Harris now is utterly unlike anything any previous would-be nominee has faced.

But it’s a roughly even bet whether it leads to the White House or the most painful of defeats.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Updated at 6:39 a.m. EDT