The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May.
The model’s Tuesday update found Biden winning in 526 of 1,000 simulations, a positive showing for the president. The model’s update goes against other predictors and national polling averages — including those from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ — which have found Trump holding a slight lead.
The site’s model “puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators,” analytical director G. Elliott Morris explained. “Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.”
“In effect, we are hedging our bets” in an attempt to account for polling biases and uncertainty amid the election cycle, Morris said.
Morris also cited a recent grouping of swing state polls that were good news for Biden, showing some recovery from a poor debate performance that has brought his candidacy into question.
Other recent polls, however, have shown Trump leading the entire slate of swing states. A Virginia poll published Tuesday found Trump in the lead by 3 points as well.
Ron Klain, former White House chief of staff for the Biden administration, touted the 538 model’s update in a post to the social platform X.
“But I thought he had ‘no path’ according to donors and the electeds following the donors,” Klain wrote in the post, with a screenshot of the updated model attached.