5 things to watch as the GOP convention kicks off under shadow of Trump shooting

The Republican National Convention is kicking off Monday in Milwaukee, where former President Trump is set to formally accept the party’s nomination just days after an assassination attempt against him shocked the country.

Trump pledged to attend the Wisconsin convention despite the incident at his Pennsylvania rally, which the FBI is investigating as a potential domestic terrorist act.  

Thousands of Republicans will descend on the city, a blue bastion in a battleground state that could prove pivotal in November. The week is packed with events and appearances from other top GOP figures, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), in the party’s first full-scale convention since the COVID-19 pandemic forced the 2020 program largely online.   

But Saturday’s violent incident has cast a shadow over the event, with observers watching closely to see how it impacts what is traditionally a celebratory affair.

Here’s what to watch:  

What does Trump say in the wake of the shooting? 

Trump’s speech Thursday, which will serve as the grand finale of the convention, will be one for the history books no matter what he says, as it will come just days after he was nearly killed by a bullet.

The attempted assassination has already spurred Republicans to close ranks around Trump, who continues to be a divisive figure within his own party. The image of him bloodied, raising his fist to the crowd and mouthing the word “fight” has already become perhaps the defining moment of the election.

Trump is almost certain to use that moment to not only drive home his message but also capitalize on the GOP’s newfound energy.

The former president has often depicted himself as a fighter to his supporters throughout his political career, and his acceptance speech will likely take the same tone.

But Trump could also use the moment to pitch a unifying message to the country. In the moments after the attempted killing, he released a statement on Truth Social calling for Americans to come together. Whether his remarks carry that same message remains to be seen.

What’s the atmosphere like?             

Conventions are typically celebratory events as delegates award the leading candidate with the official party nod, though the Pennsylvania shooting has already tainted the festivities.

Of course, the party will go on, and Trump himself has made clear that he wants the event to go forward as planned.

Still, the shooting renewed security concerns for the convention, though the Secret Service said Sunday that it’s “not anticipating any changes to our operational security plans” for the event and is “confident” in the existing procedures. The FBI also assured that there are no known threats heading into this week. 

Even if security measures continue as planned, tensions will likely be at least somewhat higher for such a high-profile event featuring already-tight security. 

Who does Trump pick for VP? 

In the months running up to the convention, the former president’s “veepstakes” had taken center stage, with Ohio Sen. JD Vance, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio surging into the spotlight as the most likely choices.  

The debut of the chosen running mate will still be one of the most closely watched moments of the convention, with the vice presidential pick set to deliver a speech Wednesday evening.

The contenders have all rallied around the former president on social media, praising Trump and casting blame for the attempted assassination.   

“God protected President Trump,” Rubio, who ran against Trump in 2016, said in a post on the social platform X, sharing a photo of Trump at the rally.

Burgum, who ran against Trump in this cycle’s primary, praised Trump as “stronger than his enemies.”  

Vance, a former Trump critic, pointed fingers at the Biden campaign’s “rhetoric” in a post that former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said should disqualify him from becoming Trump’s vice president. Authorities have identified the shooter, and voter records reportedly show he was registered as a Republican, but his motive has not been officially concluded. 

Trump has long teased out the suspense about his preferred second-in-command, hinting that he could announce as early as just before the convention. Now, it looks like the big reveal will fall once the event has officially kicked off, but how much of an impact it makes as the shooting takes up headlines remains to be seen.  

Does Biden turmoil take a back seat? 

At the same time Republicans are flocking to Milwaukee, Democrats are dealing with internal tumult as growing calls from within their own ranks put pressure on Biden to stand aside after his dismal debate performance late last month. 

But even as gradually increasing numbers of congressional Democrats call for the party to select a new nominee, attention to that issue has faltered, or at least paused, as the rally shooting dominates the headlines. 

While Democrats stewed among themselves and Biden remained adamant that he would continue his run, Trump was uncharacteristically quiet as he and his allies basked in the chaos consuming his rival. 

Trump has mocked Biden’s debate performance but urged him to stay in the race and predicted the incumbent will not drop out. Presidential nominees in their convention speeches often make at least some reference to the opposing party and candidate even if they mostly focus on their own vision. 

Trump will have the opportunity to address the turmoil surrounding Biden more directly to a national audience, at least making clearer how he views his chances in a rematch with the president. 

But in light of the shooting, it’s unclear how much Trump and other Republicans will address his opponent’s challenges.  

The Biden campaign suspended its campaign activities following the shooting but is set to resume them Monday night.

Are there any more surprises?

Major party conventions are usually one of the most well-planned events in politics, scheduled out moment-to-moment, including speeches and delegate nomination votes. 

But as the conventions air live on television, and Saturday’s events are a reminder of the unprecedented nature of the 2024 race, anything can happen. 

The most common and anticipated disruption could be protests, which most infamously happened at the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago, which saw rioting as police and protesters brawled. 

While much has been made about possible protests over Israel and other issues at the Democratic convention next month, protests could conceivably occur at the Republican convention, too. Many voters have still indicated frustration with Trump and prefer to have another nominee, and even after he clinched the nomination, many voters cast protest votes against Trump to signal their dissatisfaction. 

At least one protest bringing together a wide range of progressive groups is reportedly planned for Monday.

Speakers could also go off their script of prepared remarks, as actor Clint Eastwood memorably did when he spoke to a chair during the 2012 Republican convention, pretending that then-President Obama was sitting there. 

They also may have an opportunity to play off the crowd to boost enthusiasm, as attendees will typically be among the most party faithful. Given the events of the past few days, Trump may have the biggest opportunity of anyone.