Election forecaster moves Michigan, Minnesota in Trump’s direction

Nonpartisan election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics is shifting two Midwestern states toward former President Trump’s direction postdebate. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote in an analysis Wednesday that the election handicapper was moving the presidential horse race in Michigan from “leans Democratic” to “toss up,” while shifting Minnesota from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.” 

“One thing that has crystallized for us after the debate is that it may no longer make sense to give Biden the benefit of the doubt. Our working assumption has been that whatever the polls say now, this was shaping up to be another very close election,” Kondik wrote. 

Kondik noted the elections forecaster had shifted a handful of states toward Trump several weeks ago, but caveated in its analysis at the time that it suspected Biden would perform better in the fall.

“We went on to say that Biden has ‘a little bit more base consolidation to do than Trump.’ That is probably still the case, but the debate performance calls into question Biden’s ability to actually make that happen,” Kondik wrote.

“What Biden needs to do is show that the debate was a fluke, not a reflection of day-to-day reality. He can only do that by turning in better performances in unscripted settings — performances he may not be able to produce.” 

The rating shifts are the latest sign of how Biden’s lackluster debate performance last week is reverberating four months before the election, as some members of the party have started to call on the president to drop out of the White House race.  

Though Michigan was a clear swing state from the start — Biden won it in 2020 by nearly 3 points — Minnesota has been seen as a more reliable Democratic state. Biden won the North Star State by 7 points last presidential election cycle.  

So far, only one House Democrat has called on Biden to drop out, but many other Democrats in Congress have said Biden needs to prove he’s up to the challenge of taking on Trump.