Trump campaign poll: Impeachment unpopular in swing districts

A new survey conducted by President Trump’s campaign pollsters finds impeachment is unpopular in districts carried by Trump in 2016 where Democratic lawmakers are seeking reelection.

The poll, conducted by Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis, surveyed 30 voters in each of 30 swing districts that voted for Trump in 2016 but elected Democratic House members in 2018.

The Trump campaign did not poll New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. Jefferson Van Drew (D) is expected to switch parties and become a Republican.

Overall, the surveys found that voters in those swing districts opposed impeachment by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent. When voters were asked how they would feel if their representative voted to impeach Trump, 39 percent said it would make them more likely to vote for someone else, compared to 29 percent who said it would make them more likely to support the Democratic incumbent.

“These Democrats already knew they were in trouble before the sham impeachment, but now they are in serious jeopardy,” said Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale. “By moving forward with her political theater of impeachment, [Speaker] Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.] has accomplished two things – she has energized the president’s supporters and walked her entire majority caucus off the plank.”

Nationwide, public opinion surveys have shown voters are deeply divided over impeachment.

According to the polling website FiveThirtyEight, an average of 52 percent of voters support the impeachment investigation, compared with 42 percent who oppose it. However, 47.3 percent support impeaching and removing Trump, while 46.7 percent oppose impeachment and removal.

A CNN survey released this week found support for impeachment has dropped over the past month.

That poll found that 45 percent of voters surveyed supported impeaching and removing the president, compared with 47 percent who opposed it. In a similar November survey, 50 percent supported impeachment and removal, while 43 percent were opposed.

The shift in the CNN poll was largely driven by wavering Democrats. In November, 90 percent supported impeachment and removal, but that number fell to 77 percent in the latest survey.

Still, Democrats are largely expected to stick together when the House votes on impeachment this week. Trump is poised to become the third president in U.S. history to be impeached. The vote will likely break along party lines.

There is intense debate about whether voters will punish Democrats next year for pursuing impeachment.

The 30 Democrats running in districts Trump carried are among the party’s most vulnerable. Democrats currently have a 36 seat majority in the House.

The Trump campaign pollsters found that voters in the 30 districts prefer a generic Republican over a generic Democrat by a 47 percent to 44 percent margin.

Forty-seven percent of voters in the districts said they favor electing a new person to office irrespective of how the member votes on impeachment, while 36 percent said they would like to see their member reelected.

About two-thirds of voters said they would rather Congress focus on issues such as lowering prescription drug prices, approving new trade deals or investing in infrastructure, instead of impeachment.

The Trump campaign poll of 900 likely voters in 2020 has a 3.7 percentage-point margin of error.