Bowman faces moment of truth: 5 things to watch in Tuesday’s primaries

Voters in Colorado, New York, South Carolina and Utah will cast ballots Tuesday in key contests that are set to highlight friction within both parties and test former President Trump’s endorsement power. 

In particular, all eyes will be on Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-N.Y.) high-profile primary, which has turned into a proxy battle between competing wings of the Democratic Party. But there are other highlights around the country as well.

Here are five things to watch.

Bowman’s moment of truth

Bowman’s primary in the Empire State has divided Democrats and put a spotlight on party tensions around the Israel-Hamas war.  

Bowman, a member of the progressive Squad and one of the voices who called for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, is on a rocky path to reelection against Westchester County Executive George Latimer. 

Bowman is supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), while Latimer is backed by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.). 

Latimer also has support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has poured millions into campaigns this cycle. A poll from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill earlier this month showed Latimer with a 17-point lead. 

The race could serve as both the end for Bowman and the first instance of an incumbent House Democrat losing this year.

Another test of Trump’s endorsement power

Trump’s endorsement power has been on display in several primaries since his historic conviction in a Manhattan criminal trial last month. The legal blow has largely failed to dent the former president’s momentum as he heads toward a rematch with President Biden, and his candidates have continued to notch wins in key races. 

Trump’s influence will again be put to the test in several Tuesday contests. In Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, he has backed state party Chair Dave Williams over talk radio host Jeff Crank.

In Utah, Rep. Celeste Maloy (R) is running for a full term in the seat she filled through a special election last year, and though she has Trump’s backing, the state party passed her over for their official nod. 

Trump has also endorsed long-shot conservative candidate Trent Staggs against the more moderate Rep. John Curtis for outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) Utah seat, though Curtis is seen as the favorite. 

Boebert’s likely resurgence

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) nearly lost to Democrat Adam Frisch by a razor-thin margin of 546 votes for her seat in the 3rd Congressional District during the midterms. 

When fellow Colorado Republican Rep. Ken Buck announced last year that he was vacating his seat in the 4th Congressional District, Boebert switched over to that district, which is seen as more favorable to Republicans. Buck expedited his retirement, stepping down earlier this year and narrowing the House GOP’s thin majority. 

Though the controversial Boebert has been accused of carpetbagging as she faces a crowded primary field for Buck’s seat, she’s the clear favorite to win Tuesday’s primary. And if she gets the party’s nod, she will be the clear front-runner in the general election in November. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates her old seat in the 3rd District as leaning Republican — while the 4th District is solidly Republican. 

A Colorado special election will test Dem, GOP enthusiasm

Buck’s exit from the House triggered a special election to fill his vacancy, which is separate from the race that will see Boebert battling for a full term. 

The Republican candidate for Buck’s seat is former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, who is not running for a full term. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ pick, speechwriter Trisha Calvarese, is in both contests. They’re up against two other third-party contenders and will appear on the ballot alongside the full-term race. 

Though the seat is a long shot for Democrats, observers will be closely watching turnout in the special election to see how Democratic enthusiasm compares with that of the GOP. A special election in a ruby-red Ohio district earlier this month took many by surprise when the Democrat came close to winning.

“It remains highly unlikely that Democrats will flip the 4th District, but if any Republican can put it in play, they believe it’s Lopez,” Cook Political Report’s Matthew Klein said in an analysis. 

Are there any surprises in the Utah governor’s race?

The Utah state GOP snubbed popular incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox when it backed a primary challenger from his right, exposing strains among Republicans in the red state. 

Moderate Cox is still the favorite to win another term in the governor’s mansion, but the state party’s 4,000-some delegates booed him and sided with Phil Lyman, a staunch Trump supporter, at their convention earlier this year. 

Cox has told news outlets that he hasn’t voted for a major presidential candidate since 2012, while Lyman has said he’s supported the former president “unapologetically” since 2016. Lyman was pardoned by Trump in 2020 after being convicted of a misdemeanor in connection with an unlawful all-terrain vehicle ride on public lands. 

Cox collected enough signatures to secure an alternate path to the ballot and will appear in Tuesday’s primary despite not snagging his party’s nomination. Polling has put him as the clear front-runner over Lyman, but as Republicans also scramble to replace retiring Romney, an outspoken Trump critic, the results could still show a notable share of voters souring on moderates in the GOP.