Trump holds slight edge over Biden in key swing states post-conviction

Former President Trump boasts a narrow edge over President Biden in critical battlegrounds in the wake of his historic conviction in a New York criminal trial.

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls find Trump up 4 points over Biden in Arizona and Georgia, 3 points up in Wisconsin and Nevada, and 2 points up in Pennsylvania. In Michigan, Trump leads by 1 point, and the pair are dead even in Minnesota. 

“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. The results notably fall within the polls’ margin of error. 

Trump was found guilty in his Manhattan hush money trial last month, but the legal blow has largely failed to dent his edge in the presidential race as he heads toward a rematch with Biden in November. He’s set to be sentenced in early July, just ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

A plurality of voters in all seven swing states surveyed said Trump’s conviction has no impact on their votes. 

At the same time, a majority of voters in each state said the recent conviction of Biden’s son Hunter Biden will also have no impact on their vote. 

The president isn’t implicated in that case, which marked the first trial of a sitting commander in chief’s child, but some Democrats are reportedly worried that the matter could take a toll on Biden and prove a distraction along the campaign trail.

The new Emerson/The Hill polling also found independent voters broke for Trump in all seven states, though his support among that group has fallen in three states since April — down 5 points in Arizona, 3 points in Michigan, and 8 points in Pennsylvania. 

Biden, on the other hand, lost support among independents by 6 points in Georgia and 5 points in Nevada across that same period. 

But while Biden trails Trump in the key battlegrounds, Democratic Senate candidates are leading their respective Republican rivals in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Senate contender in Arizona, is beating Republican Kari Lake and outperforming Biden by 2 points — as is Sen. Bob Casey (D) in his race against Republican nominee Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) against likely GOP challenger Eric Hovde in Wisconsin. 

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is outperforming Biden by 3 points in Minnesota, and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is running ahead of the president by 7 points in Nevada. 

The polls surveyed 1,000 registered voters in each state June 13-18 and had a credibility interval of 3 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases in each state.