The presidential campaign is set for a red-hot summer.
The traditional lull, which stretches from the primaries wrapping up in the spring until the final sprint of campaigning in the fall, won’t happen this year.
Instead, potentially pivotal events are coming thick and fast.
First up is a presidential debate set for June 27 in Atlanta.
Then, on July 11, Judge Juan Merchan will sentence former President Trump following his conviction in his New York hush money case.
Just four days after the sentencing, the Republican National Convention will open in Milwaukee, with Trump scheduled to be crowned as the official GOP nominee on the final night of the four-day event, July 18.
Domestic politics and global affairs will collide the following week, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled to address Congress on July 24.
The Netanyahu visit is a political headache for President Biden, whose party is riven with deep divisions over an Israeli assault on Gaza that is estimated to have killed more than 37,000 people.
After all that, both candidates might be grateful for some breathing space before the Democratic National Convention takes place in Chicago from Aug. 19-22.
Among the summer landmarks, the debate has the most obvious potential impact on a close race.
The clash was organized at surprisingly short notice outside the auspices of the Commission on Presidential Debates. It will be televised by CNN.
It’s extremely rare to have a debate so early in an election cycle. The first 2020 clash between Biden and Trump came in late September.
From the Biden campaign’s perspective, the early debate provides an opportunity to put the spotlight squarely on Trump and remind voters that they are going to be faced with a binary choice in November.
A strong showing from Biden would also help ease questions about his age and cognitive abilities — issues that polls show concern a sizable chunk of Democratic voters, as well as independents and Republicans.
But the reverse is also true: A faltering performance would deepen doubts.
Team Trump contends that the potential downside for Biden is much greater than the upside.
“It’s a much bigger risk for Biden than for Trump,” one pro-Trump political operative said. “If Biden has a senior moment, it’s over. If Biden survives and is passable, I don’t know how much it helps him since we’re in June, which leaves him a lot of time to have bad moments that go viral.”
This operative contended that Biden’s debate performance would either “put a Band-Aid on a wound” or have the wound “get infected and the infection spreads through his body.”
Independent observers say the unusual nature of such an early debate makes it hard to game out the consequences.
“On one hand, an early debate could change the narrative and put the race into focus earlier than normal — but it’s also a very long time before voting,” said Aaron Kall, the Director of Debate at the University of Michigan and the editor of “Debating the Donald,” a book about Trump’s previous debates.
Kall also noted that the long gap between the two scheduled presidential debates could make it harder for either candidate to recover if he stumbles on June 27. The second debate is due to take place Sept. 10, televised by ABC.
Meanwhile, there is the Trump sentencing to consider.
The former president could be jailed for four years on each count. But virtually no one expects him to receive the maximum sentence, given that he is a first-time offender.
Some form of home confinement is plausible, however.
The Biden campaign released a new TV ad Monday emphasizing Trump’s recent felony conviction, as well as the civil verdict that held him liable for the sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.
Trump loyalists shot back that there is no reason to suppose sentencing will have any significant negative effect on Trump’s support. Instead, they say, harsh punishment from Merchan could fire up the MAGA base.
The GOP convention, meanwhile, is likely to underline Trump’s dominance of a party that, back when he was first nominated in 2016, was clearly skeptical of him. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) famously declined to endorse Trump during his own 2016 convention speech. These days, Cruz is an enthusiastic backer.
Democratic disunity will likely be on display when Netanyahu comes to Washington.
After some consideration, the top two Democratic leaders in Congress, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), both signed on to the letter inviting Netanyahu, which was instigated by Republicans.
In doing so, they have elicited emphatic protest from progressives, who highlight that the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court is seeking an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister on suspicion of war crimes.
Eva Borgwardt, the national spokesperson for IfNotNow, a group of Jewish Americans that is fiercely critical of Israeli policies toward the Palestinians, said those congressional leaders who signed on to the invite “will forever be remembered as the leaders who invited the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu to give an address to Congress in the middle of Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza.”
Borgwardt also contended that any Democrat who attended Netanyahu’s address would be “siding with far-right forces, and against human rights and democracy and what the majority of voters support,” including an immediate cease-fire.
Prominent progressive figures, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), have already stated they will boycott the address.
The political reality is that Biden will anger a share of his party regardless of what he does in relation to the Netanyahu speech.
But that’s only one challenge in a summer that will have plenty of them.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.