Voters in Georgia, Oklahoma and Virginia are headed to the polls Tuesday to weigh in on a spate of key congressional primaries and runoffs.
In Virginia, a Trump-backed primary challenge threatens House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R), while in Oklahoma, Trump-endorsed Rep. Tom Cole (R) faces a primary challenge from the right. In Georgia, a candidate convicted of a misdemeanor for illegally demonstrating inside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, made it through to the runoff.
Races across the three states will test incumbents’ staying power and the potency behind former President Trump’s endorsement as they set up critical November match-ups.
Here are five things to watch.
Is it the end for Bob Good?
A contentious primary in Virginia could see the first House incumbent loss to a primary challenger this year as Good fights to hold on to his 5th Congressional District seat.
Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) was the first House lawmaker to lose his reelection bid when he lost to Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) in an incumbent-on-incumbent primary prompted by redistricting in Alabama, but House incumbents have otherwise been on a winning streak in their primaries so far.
But that may change Tuesday night with Good’s race. The conservative lawmaker drew the former president’s ire when he initially endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the GOP White House primary. Though he backed Trump after DeSantis left the presidential race, Trump argued the support came “too late.”
Good’s rival, state Sen. John McGuire (R), now heads into Tuesday with Trump’s endorsement, plus support from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) Majority Committee PAC. The incumbent got on the ex-Speaker’s bad side when he joined seven other Republicans and all Democrats to remove McCarthy from his top House leadership role last year.
Most recently, a member of the Freedom Caucus that Good chairs, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), backed McGuire, a stunning move that underscores the political danger the Virginia Republican is.
Still, Good has some high-profile backers of his own, including Trump’s on-again, off-again ally Steve Bannon, who stumped for the incumbent in Virginia earlier this month.
With so many knives out for Good, it seems possible he could become the first lawmaker to lose to a nonincumbent this cycle.
Do Trump’s candidates prevail?
The presidential primaries have wrapped up, but the presumptive White House nominees loom large as contests continue to test their endorsement power.
While Trump is behind McGuire in Virginia, he’s backing incumbent Cole in Oklahoma. Cole, an 11-term incumbent and the chair of the House Appropriations Committee, faces a competitive challenge from well-funded businessman Paul Bondar.
In Georgia’s 3rd Congressional District, former Trump White House political director Brian Jack is running against former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan to replace retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R).
Jack boasts Trump’s endorsement, but failed to cross the 50-point mark to avoid a runoff in last month’s primary. The winner of Tuesday’s runoff will go up against Democrat Maura Keller in November.
Tuesday’s races will again gauge whether the former president’s backing is enough to get his picks over the primary finish line.
Does a Jan. 6 convict win?
A primary runoff in Georgia’s 2nd Congressional District will be the latest test of whether voters are willing to back a candidate involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop, a 16-term incumbent, is set to face off in the fall against either Wayne Johnson, a former Trump administration official, or Chuck Hand, who was convicted of a misdemeanor for illegally demonstrating inside the Capitol during the riots.
Johnson emerged from last month’s Republican primary with roughly 44 percent of the vote, under the 50-point mark needed to avoid a runoff. Hand notched 32 percent, and though strategists say Bishop is positioned to hold on to his historically blue seat in November, experts say Hand’s support is a notable metric about voter sentiments toward Jan. 6.
Polling indicates Republican disapproval of the riots is waning, and Trump has praised “J6 warriors” along the campaign trail. As the former president decries his own legal battles as politically motivated, some in the GOP may be willing to look past a Jan. 6 conviction.
How close are the contested primaries?
The contested primaries across the three states voting on Tuesday could come down to the wire, and even prompt runoff races in Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, like Georgia, has a majority threshold to win the primary. In competitive races like Cole’s in the 4th Congressional District — where five candidates are competing for the GOP nomination — the contest could be pushed into an August runoff.
A recent survey of Good’s primary, conducted by the Virginia Faith and Freedom Coalition, found McGuire with a 10-point lead, according to local outlet WSET, but another 30 percent of voters were still undecided.
Also in Virginia, candidates surged into the races to replace two outgoing congresswomen, setting up competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle. Half a dozen Republicans and seven Democrats are vying to succeed Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), who is running for governor. The contest for retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s (D) seat, meanwhile, has drawn a dozen Democratic candidates and four competitors on the GOP side.
The margins in these contested primaries could offer clues as to how divided both parties are heading into November.
What’s turnout like?
Oklahoma and Virginia both held their presidential primaries on Super Tuesday back in March, and low turnout for the White House contest in both states has raised concerns for the rest of the election year.
The Sooner State saw Super Tuesday turnout down from 2020, with a significant drop among Democrats, according to The Oklahoman, falling from more than 300,000 blue voters in last cycle’s primary to roughly 91,000 this spring.
In Virginia, turnout was at just 6 percent among Democrats and 11 percent among Republicans during the state’s Super Tuesday primary, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project.
But the White House primary race was an unusual one, with Biden and Trump both long seen as the inevitable nominees for their respective parties, which could be a positive sign for nonpresidential primaries.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) said last month that the Peach State saw higher turnout in its congressional contests last month than in its presidential primaries in May. Experts said Tuesday’s runoff turnout, however, isn’t expected to break any records.
In states with highly competitive races, turnout will be key to tipping the scales up and down the ballot. How many voters turn out in both the Democratic and GOP primaries could offer insight into how much voters enthusiasm there is ahead of the fall.