President Biden is leading former President Trump in New York — but only by single digits in the largely blue state, according to a poll released Thursday.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey found Biden leading Trump 48 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. When undecided voters are factored in, the incumbent’s lead stretches to 10 points, 55 percent to 45 percent.
Biden also holds a single-digit lead over Trump when independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and several other long-shot candidates — Jill Stein and Cornel West — are factored in the survey: Biden is at 44 percent, while Trump sits at 38 percent.
Those numbers are notable given New York’s largely blue status. The Empire State voted for Biden over Trump by a much larger margin of 61 percent to 38 percent in 2020.
But Republicans are enjoying some favorable tail winds. The poll found that only 39 percent of New Yorkers surveyed for the poll approved of Biden’s job as president, and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) approval rating is even worse, at 34 percent.
When respondents are asked what the most important issue is facing New York, the top issues that New Yorkers point to are also ones that Republicans have leaned heavily on: 34 percent said the economy, 16 percent said immigration and 13 percent said crime. Twelve percent said housing affordability.
“Independent voters in New York who traditionally voted for Democrats, according to exit polling, have now flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release.
The polling also found that a majority of New Yorkers believe Trump is guilty of some or all counts in his criminal trial, with 46 percent said they thought he was guilty on every count, 34 percent said not guilty on all counts and 20 percent who believed he was only guilty on some.
Kimball noted, however, stark political breakdowns within those numbers.
“71% of Democrats would find Trump guilty of all charges, while 71% of Republicans would find him not guilty. Independents are split: 37% say he’s not guilty, 35% say he’s guilty of all counts, and 29% think he’s guilty of some but not all counts,” Kimball explained. “Overall, 84% of Democrats, 69% of independents, and 46% of Republicans expect the jury to find him guilty of some or all charges.”
Biden is grappling with underwater approval ratings and polls showing him trailing in many of the battleground states. They also show tighter than expected match-ups in blue states such as New York.
While the election is more than five months out, the polling is offering warning signs for Biden and Democrats in what is expected to be another contentious election.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 poll was conducted May 28-29 with 1,000 registered New York voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.