Lake lead narrows in Arizona primary, signaling ‘volatile race’: Survey

Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake’s lead over her Republican primary challenger is narrowing, according to a poll released Thursday by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).

Lake has about 46 percent support among Arizona Republicans, while primary rival Mark Lamb has about 21 percent support, according to the poll. About a quarter of voters are undecided in the primary.

The figure is a drop from a similar poll in February, which found the former gubernatorial candidate with 54 percent backing from Republican voters. The number of undecided voters has also risen 8 points since the February poll, now standing at 25 percent.

“Something we don’t typically see is an increase in undecided voters this close to primary election day,” NPI founder Mike Noble said in a statement. “While Lake remains the frontrunner, her diminishing lead and the growing number of undecided voters indicate a volatile race.”

Lake’s favorability struggled in specific demographics that could be key in a general election race against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), the poll found. Only about a third of both women and independents have a favorable view of Lake, as well as about 40 percent of suburban voters and just under half of voters over 65.

In a hypothetical general election match-up with Gallego, Lake trails by 10 points, according to the poll. The Phoenix congressman has about 46 percent support among the general electorate to Lake’s 36 percent support.

The result backs up other similar polls that have found Gallego with an edge in the race, expected to be one of the closest nationally as Democrats hope to keep their razor-thin Senate majority.

“Ruben Gallego’s lead in the general election, especially among Independents, highlights the challenges Lake would face in a broader contest,” Noble said. “Democrats are more unified than Republicans at this stage, which gives Gallego an advantage.”

Gallego holds a 6.9 percent lead over Lake in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average of polls in the state.