Trump baffles allies with endorsement of long-shot Utah candidate

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify that businessman Jason Walton, former Utah state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R), and Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) are all running statewide television ads.

Former President Trump’s allies fear the former president has given a boost to the moderate wing of the GOP in Utah by backing a long-shot conservative candidate in the race to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).

Trump endorsed Trent Staggs shortly before the Utah GOP convention last month. Voters will formally choose their nominee in the June 25 primary. 

Staggs has shown few signs of viability as he struggles to raise money and gain traction in the polls, sparking fears among some Trump-aligned Republicans that the endorsement could splinter conservative voters and put Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), the more moderate candidate, in the driver’s seat ahead.

“Everyone knows this is Curtis’ race to lose,” one Utah-based GOP operative said. “Staggs has to pitch a perfect game to win. … [Trump’s team] has to take a real interest in this seat for it to not fold over to Curtis.”

Curtis was never considered to be in contention to win Trump’s support. He did not back Trump during the presidential primary earlier this year, and his wife was an ardent backer of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) before she dropped out of the GOP presidential primary race. He also has much of Romney’s team behind him. 

But Republican operatives believe that if Trump really wanted to make a dent in the race, he would have backed either businessman Jason Walton or former Utah state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R)  — both of whom are well-funded and would have had a puncher’s chance had Trump sided with them. Wilson, Walton and Curtis are the only candidates who are running statewide television ads. 

“It was a real miscalculation picking Staggs,” the Utah-based GOP operative said, pointing to the decision not to back Walton specifically. The operative noted Walton has the campaign infrastructure to get the word out about an endorsement.

Two GOP sources told The Hill that Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) privately urged Trump to back Walton the night before the convention. A Lee spokesperson declined to delve into specifics on those discussions. 

“Sen. Lee speaks to President Trump regularly, and President Trump asks very routinely on not just the Utah Senate race but many of the Senate races because the senator often meets with candidates,” said Dan Hauser, a top political aide to Lee, pointing to the senator’s “very specific interview process” for candidates. “They have discussed numerous options in numerous races. But anything in specifics they discuss in private, they like to keep it that way.” 

Instead, Trump backed Staggs, who operatives say put himself on the radar for the endorsement with an approach that centered on courting MAGA influencers — including Stephen Bannon, Kari Lake and Charlie Kirk — that helped lead him to the former president. The decision perplexed allies of the former president, who is known as a kingmaker in Senate GOP primaries.

“I was surprised,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a Trump ally who also counts Curtis as a friend from his time in the House.

A spokesperson for the former president did not respond to a request for comment about the endorsement. 

The main question for Staggs is whether he can make the endorsement count and keep Curtis from running away with the primary. He will likely need a cash infusion to make that happen.

According to the pre-convention filing, Staggs raised less than $200,000 during the first three months of the year. 

“Staggs’ challenge is that people need to know Trump endorsed you. And without resources how do you do that?” a national GOP operative said. 

Staggs, for his part, said he was grateful for Trump’s support.

“He knows, like I do, that Utah is ready for an America First Senator to join Mike Lee,” Staggs said in a statement. “Conservatives are fired up and hungry for someone more concerned about our own border rather than Ukraines. We’re sending a message to the Washington establishment that their time is up.”

Romney, meanwhile, is not wading into the race. The one-time GOP presidential nominee spoke highly of Curtis and Wilson when asked about the race, calling them both “qualified individuals” who would “represent Utah well.” He also pointed to the lack of success at the ballot box historically for those who have come out on top at the state convention, which features 4,000 delegates.

“The president weighs in in a lot of places where people are surprised. I guess he often times is intrigued by whoever speaks with him last, so I don’t know who spoke with him but it obviously did a nice job to help Mr. Staggs in the Republican convention,” Romney told The Hill. “But I think history suggests if you win the Republican convention, you’ll lose the primary.” 

That could very well be the case this year, and not only at the Senate level. Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) lost the convention by a wide margin as well, but is expected to handily win reelection later this year. 

The race also took a turn in recent weeks as Brent Hatch, son of the late and longtime Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) who was pulling in as much as double digits in the race, did not make the ballot. 

The son of the Utah GOP heavyweight was the beneficiary of millions from an outside group affiliated with the Club for Growth, but he was unable to gather the requisite 28,000 signatures (he gathered 21,035) and fell far short of qualifying via convention. One GOP operative with Utah ties told The Hill that Hatch’s issues stemmed from his late entry and lack of real operation behind his bid.

“He decided to run on a whim, but never built infrastructure around it,” the strategist said.

The effort to gather signatures fell short in large part because by the time he tried to hire a firm to take on that process, they were all hired up by other candidates and it was too late, leaving him to pick up the pieces, according to the operative.  

Trump has had a roller-coaster relationship with Utah Republicans dating to his 2016 race. GOP operatives say his standing with primary voters is strong, but not as high as it is in other ruby red states, potentially limiting the impact of his endorsement for Staggs. 

But whether Staggs can make a run either way remains a major question for some Republicans. 

“This isn’t some House race in Alabama,” the national GOP operative said. “You actually have to do the thing, and the question is: can he?”