Casey leads GOP rival in Pennsylvania Senate race: Poll

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads his Republican challenger David McCormick six months out from Election Day, according to a new Emerson College/The Hill swing state poll released Tuesday. 

The poll found 46 percent of Pennsylvania voters said they backed Casey in the race, while 42 percent said they supported McCormick. Another 12 percent said they were undecided. The gap between the two candidates remained unchanged from when the last Emerson College/The Hill poll was conducted last month. In March, Casey led McCormick 45 percent to 41 percent. However, the number of undecided voters was slightly higher at 14 percent. 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democratic.” 

While the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll showed Casey with an edge in the Keystone State, the race is neck and neck at the presidential level. A presidential poll of the state conducted by Emerson College and The Hill showed former President Trump leading President Biden 47 to 45 percent, which is within the margin of error. Eight percent of voters said they were undecided. 

Pennsylvania is one of the swing states that Trump flipped in 2016, defeating then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by less than a point. However, Biden was able to win back in 2020, winning it by just over one point. 

The Emerson College/The Hill poll was conducted April 25-29 among 1,000 registered Pennsylvania voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.