7 battlegrounds that will decide who wins the presidency

It’s a rematch.

President Biden and former President Trump each hit a key marker last week, clinching enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee of their respective party.

The outcome of the general election will come down to a handful of states, as usual.

The map maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ lists seven contests as toss-ups.

Those key states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

In 2020, Biden won six of the seven — the exception being North Carolina — on his way to a 306-232 victory over Trump in the Electoral College.

The seven battlegrounds in aggregate count for 93 Electoral College votes this year.

Trump leads in all seven in current polls.

Here’s the state-by-state breakdown.

Arizona

Arizona was second to Georgia as the tightest race in the nation in 2020. Biden prevailed by about one-third of a percentage point.

The president will struggle to replicate that performance this year, if the current polls are anything to go by.

An Emerson College poll for The Hill and Nexstar last month put Trump up by 3 points in a head-to-head match-up. Trump’s lead grew to 6 points when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was added as a choice.

A pro-Kennedy super PAC, American Values, claims it has already secured more than enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Arizona.

There are two other factors to consider. 

First, Latinos make up a larger share of Arizona’s population than they do in any other battleground state — 33 percent, according to the Census Bureau.

Trump allies contend the former president is making big inroads with this demographic nationally. But in 2020, Biden bested Trump by 28 points among Latino voters, according to the VoteCast survey commissioned by The Associated Press and Fox News.

Second, Arizona could see one of the most dramatic — and polarizing — Senate races in the nation, with left-leaning Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) and fervent Trump backer Kari Lake (R) widely expected to become the major-party nominees.

Such a dramatic Senate battle could nudge up presidential turnout to even higher than expected levels. But it’s not clear who would get an advantage from such a scenario.

Georgia

Georgia has made plenty of political headlines recently, relating to the effort by Trump and his allies to overturn the 2020 result in the state. 

Trump faces 10 charges over that push, even after a judge threw out three additional charges against him Wednesday.

Back in 2020, Biden won by about one-quarter of 1 percent in the state.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released this week gave Trump a 3-point edge in a head-to-head match-up.

One-third of Georgians are Black — a significantly higher proportion than in any other battleground state. Obviously, that makes Black voter enthusiasm for Biden critical if he is to have any real shot at holding on.

There is some pessimism in Democratic circles about Georgia, with some strategists arguing that North Carolina presents a more inviting target for Biden this time around.

Four years ago, Biden was the first Democrat to carry Georgia in a presidential election since 1992.

Michigan

Biden carried Michigan with a smidgen of comfort in 2020, defeating Trump by almost 3 percentage points.

In current polling, it is one of the tightest of the battleground states. 

The Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar poll in February found Trump leading by 2 points with just him and Biden on the ballot.

Trump’s edge doubled to 4 points with Kennedy on the ballot. As with Arizona, the pro-Kennedy super PAC contends it has enough signatures to make that happen.

A big warning sign for Biden came in the Democratic primary, when more than 100,000 people voted “uncommitted.”

Michigan is home to more than 200,000 Arab Americans, representing about 2 percent of the state’s population.

If the conflict in Gaza rages on to November, or even close to it, Biden is facing very serious trouble here.

Nevada

No Republican seeking the White House has carried the Silver State since then-President George W. Bush in 2004.

But Trump clearly has a fighting chance.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll last month gave the former president a lead of either 6 points or 7 points — the slightly bigger margin coming if Kennedy is in the race.

Thirty percent of Nevadans are Latino, making the battle within that demographic critical.

Among the seven battlegrounds, Nevada also has the lowest share of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher — 27 percent, according to the Census Bureau. 

That could be good news for Trump, who is markedly stronger among voters without a college education.

North Carolina

This is Biden’s one semirealistic chance to flip a battleground state this year.

Trump won North Carolina by roughly 1 point in 2020. The state’s major cities, notably Charlotte and Raleigh, have seen their populations swell with new arrivals from more Democratic-leaning states in the north.

Black voters will be critical here too, representing 22 percent of the overall population.

The headwinds Biden faces right now make a North Carolina victory look like an uphill climb, however.

A poll this month from Raleigh TV station WRAL and SurveyUSA found Trump leading by 5 points among likely voters.

The wild card could be the gubernatorial race.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), ending his second term, cannot run again because of term limits.

Attorney General Josh Stein last week secured the Democratic nomination to try to succeed Cooper.

But the bigger story came with the choice by North Carolina’s Republicans to nominate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

Robinson’s history includes a series of controversial remarks about the Holocaust, describing “homosexuality” as “filth,” and suggesting that God has ordained that Christians should be “led by men.”

Could moderate suburbanites come out to thwart Robinson and, in the process, nudge up Biden’s chances? It’s at least possible.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the biggest prize of the seven battlegrounds, with 19 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

Trump leads by 4 points in the latest Emerson poll for The Hill and Nexstar. A poll a few days prior for Fox News put the margins tighter, including a dead heat between Biden and Trump if Kennedy is on the ballot.

Pennsylvania was one of three Democratic ‘blue wall’ states Trump demolished in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, becoming the first Republican presidential nominee to win there since 1988.

Biden carried the Keystone State by roughly 1 point four years ago.

People older than 65 make up a slightly larger share of the population in Pennsylvania than any other battleground. The state is also 75 percent white. Both factors should make it fertile ground for Trump.

But it’s also a state Biden has a real affinity for, given that it’s adjacent to his home state of Delaware.

This could be the decisive battle in November.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin was the narrowest Midwest win for Biden in 2020, where he scraped home by about half a percentage point.

It has fewer nonwhite voters than any other battleground, with Latinos representing roughly 8 percent of the population and African-Americans 7 percent.

The most recent Hill/Nexstar poll puts Trump up by 3 or 4 points, depending on the Kennedy ballot access question.

The state has a relatively strong history for Democrats in the recent past. Gov. Tony Evers (D) won reelection in 2022, and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term in November.

Still, Trump should not be underestimated. He beat Clinton in Wisconsin in 2016, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since 1984.