Casey leads GOP rival McCormick in Pennsylvania Senate race: Poll

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is ahead of Republican David McCormick in Pennsylvania’s closely watched Senate race, according to a poll released Thursday, though his lead has narrowed since February.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Pennsylvania found Casey with 45 percent support to McCormick’s 41 percent in a potential general election match-up, while another 14 percent were undecided.

When undecided voters are forced to make a pick of which candidate they lean toward, Casey’s support climbs to 52 percent, and McCormick’s to 48 percent.

While the incumbent holds a 4-point lead, it’s a narrower margin than the 10-point gap recorded in February, when Casey pulled in 49 percent to McCormick’s 39 percent.

McCormick ran unsuccessfully for retiring Sen. Pat Toomey’s (R-Pa.) seat back in 2022, losing the Republican nomination to Mehmet Oz — who in turn went on to lose in the general to current Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.). 

Now, McCormick is back for another shot at the upper chamber, teeing up a faceoff with Casey in the general as Republicans try to flip the Keystone State’s seat. The election handicapper Cook Political Report rates Casey’s seat as a leans-Democratic.

The primary for the Senate race is slated for April 23.

Independent voters break significantly for Casey, 42 percent to 29 percent, with another 29 percent undecided, according to the new poll.

A notable 9 percent of former voters for Donald Trump plan to split their ticket to vote for the Democratic senator, while just 3 percent of Biden voters said they’d vote for McCormick.  

Biden and Trump this week both scored the delegates they need to clinch their respective party nominations. In a general election test, the poll found Trump had 47 percent of Pennsylvania voters to Biden’s 43 percent.

The poll was conducted March 10-13 among 1,000 registered voters and has a credibility interval, which is similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.