Harris, Warren biggest debate winners on betting markets

Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) were the two biggest winners, while former Vice President Joe Biden lost ground on prediction and betting markets after the first two Democratic debates this week.

As of Friday morning Harris, who impressed with a direct attack on Biden, was tied with Warren on top of PredictIt, a market where participants bet on whether a candidate will, or will not, become the party’s nominee.

On Bovada and BetOnline, which take a more traditional approach to reflect odds, Harris and Warren propelled themselves into the same tier as Biden, with Harris even becoming the favorite to win the nomination in least one market.

{mosads}Another big climber was former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, who capitalized on his detailed immigration stances.

He was a distant outsider on most markets, but has now placed himself near Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) who have been polling a few points above him in state and local polls.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, two of the other top tier candidates, remained generally stable.

But Biden lost ground in two of the three betting markets being tracked by The Hill, after the former vice president was widely seen as having faltered on Thursday night’s debate. 

The Hill tracked three of the biggest markets on Wednesday, just hours before the start of the first of the two Democratic primary debates this week.

Here is how the 2020 candidates have shifted now that the debates have concluded.

PREDICTIT

The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants purchase shares of whether a candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each share.

21 cents: Warren (-1), Harris (+9)

20 cents: Biden (-6)

15 cents: Buttigieg (+2)

14 cents: Sanders (-1)

9 cents: Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (-5)

5 cents: Booker (0)

4 cents: Castro (+3), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) (0)

2 cents: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) (-2), O’Rourke (-3)

1 cent: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) (-1), no change: Sen. Michael Bennet (Colo.), Reps. Tim Ryan (Ohio) and Eric Swalwell (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, former Rep. John Delaney (Md.), author Marianne Williamson, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio

BOVADA

Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+200: Biden (0)

+450: Harris (-100), Warren (-250)

+500: Buttigieg (+100)

+550: Sanders (+100)

+1,300: Yang (+100)

+1,800: O’Rourke (0)

+2,500: Gabbard (-500)

+4,000: Klobuchar (0), Booker (+700)

+8,000: Gillibrand (0)

+10,000: Castro (+2,000), de Blasio (N/A), Swalwell (N/A), Inslee (N/A), Delaney (N/A), Hickenlooper (N/A), Williamson (N/A), Bennet (N/A), Ryan (N/A)

BETONLINE

BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.

Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning

+250: Harris (-550)

+325: Biden (+150)

+450: Warren (+100)

+800: Sanders (0), Buttigieg (+300)

+1,200: Yang (+200)

+2,500: Booker (-800), Castro (-2,500)

+4,000: O’Rourke (+1,500)

+5,000: Gillibrand (0), Klobuchar (0), Gabbard (0)

+10,000: Hickenlooper (0), Delaney (0), Ryan (0), de Blasio (0), Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) (0), Bullock (0), Inslee (0), Swalwell (0), Bennet (0)

+20,000: Williamson (N/A)