Trump holds narrow lead over Biden in Michigan: Poll

Former President Trump holds a narrow lead over President Biden in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to a poll released Monday.

The former president leads Biden 46 percent to 44 percent, with 10 percent of voters undecided, according to the latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.

Biden has seen his support in the Wolverine State rise by 3 percentage points since January, while Trump’s support has decreased by 1 point.

“Male voters in Michigan break for Trump by twelve points, 53% to 41%, whereas women voters break for Biden by five, 46% to 41%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Michigan’s independent voters break for Trump over Biden 43% to 37%.”

The survey comes a day before voters head to the polls in Michigan’s GOP and Democratic primaries. Michigan has been a growing cause for concern among many Democrats, who fear that Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict will badly hurt him with the state’s sizable Arab American and Muslim populations, as well as with progressives in general.

Many observers will be watching closely Tuesday to see how much support a campaign to vote “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary will garner amid calls to protest the president and his handling of the war.

An average of polls tracked by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ finds Trump currently leads Biden in Michigan by 3 points.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found that 75 percent support Biden, while 9 percent plan to vote “uncommitted” and another 5 percent say they will support Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), the president’s long-shot primary challenger.

Adding to concerns among Democrats is the impact third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will play in the November general election. Monday’s survey found that when third-party candidates were added to the ballot, Trump led Biden 42 percent to 39 percent, while Kennedy garnered 6 percent, and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 1 percent apiece.

According to the poll, 30 percent of voters named the economy as their top issue, followed by immigration (13 percent), democracy (12 percent) and health care (10 percent).

The poll was conducted Feb. 20-24 among 1,000 registered voters, and the results have a credibility interval — similar to a margin of error — of plus or minus 3 percentage points.