Haley faces tough choices ahead of South Carolina primary

Nikki Haley faces tough choices for her long-shot presidential bid as she trails former President Trump less than two weeks before the GOP primary in her home state of South Carolina.

Amid growing calls for the former president to be treated as a presumptive Republican nominee, many in the party are questioning Haley’s motives for staying in the race, with some speculating that the former United Nations ambassador is gearing up for 2028 or positioning herself as a backup in case Trump can no longer run.

The former president told supporters this week that Haley would “never” be his vice presidential pick. But if she does get out of the race, she will also face pressure to decide whether to join several of Trump’s former rivals in endorsing him.

“You want to campaign to win, and there’s no path to victory for her. And so she must be running for some other reason,” said Republican strategist Justin Sayfie, arguing Haley’s putting forward more of a “statement campaign” at this point.  

Trump now leads by nearly 35 points in South Carolina, according to the latest polling averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, as some view the state as Haley’s last stand to prove she can perform better than the polls predict.

A Winthrop University survey released this week showed Trump up 36 points, and noted Haley’s favorability has declined in her home state in recent months.

Some strategists have suggested Haley could spin a second-place finish in the Palmetto State as a win if she comes within 10 or so points of Trump, while others think anything less than an outright win will heavily bruise her.

“If the polls are to be believed, she’s about to take a terrible electoral beating in her home state. It’s hard to imagine a more humiliating loss than that, and a more debilitating loss for future political prospects than that,” Sayfie said.

But while the odds seem stacked against her, Haley’s team has signaled no intent to exit the race, charging forward to the first-in-the-South primary and turning attention toward states that vote on Super Tuesday, March 5. She announced a leadership team for California on Wednesday and rallied in Texas on Thursday. 

“Our goal is to try and be anywhere and everywhere,” Haley told CBS News Texas, insisting her campaign is “closing the gap” in South Carolina and getting ready for the races next month. 

Trump rallied in Charleston, S.C., this week alongside Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who was appointed by Haley to the Senate back in 2012 but who last year endorsed Trump after ending his own 2024 bid. Amid murmurs about whether Scott is a contender in Trump’s veepstakes, the former president appeared to take the option off the table for Haley. 

Trump during the rally referred to an earlier comment he’d made conflating Haley with former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), arguing “they both stink.”  

“Remember this, when I make a statement like that about Nikki, that means she will never be running for vice president. She will not be running with me for vice president,” Trump said.

Haley herself has said she’s not interested in a vice presidential role. Some have speculated, though, that Haley knows her 2024 chances are slim but is sticking with her stalwart campaign to take advantage of the national spotlight and build her profile for a possible 2028 run. 

At the same time, strategists say suffering losses in the early states and opening herself up to a potential embarrassment on her home turf later this month isn’t exactly helpful for Haley’s record if she is looking toward a future presidential bid.

GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser contrasted Haley with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who entered the White House race last year as the favorite to become the top Trump alternative, but suspended his bid after a second-place Iowa finish and swiftly endorsed the former president. 

“He’s keeping his powder dry, probably for the next cycle. He made a different calculation: that ‘Trump is going to be the nominee, and I’m just gonna wait until the next cycle,’” Steinhauser said. 

Haley could also be positioning herself in case Trump is derailed by one of his multiple legal battles and can’t continue his own bid.  

“That’s got to be part of the calculation at this point for her, because beating [Trump] outright without that doesn’t seem likely at all,” Steinhauser said.

Haley called out Trump’s legal battles during her Thursday rally in Dallas, saying “he’s going to spend most of this year in a courtroom, not on the campaign trail.”

Her campaign saw a notable cash influx in January, giving her the resources to keep her campaign machine rolling.

But strategists say it’s still not clear what Haley’s exact endgame is. 

“Part of the problem is that she’s not presented any sort of calculus,” Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett said. “She does not seem to be messaging that she’s going to get the nomination. She does not seem to be messaging that she is a viable alternative if or when Trump were to face either serious legal or even political issues. It’s unclear if she’s looking to carry the torch beyond.”

“Because it is such a mystery, and probably such a miserable experience right now, there’s a question as to: Is she even doing further damage to herself by staying in?” Bartlett said. 

After coming in third in Iowa, Haley scored a closer second-place finish in New Hampshire but then suffered an embarrassing defeat in the Nevada primary, losing to a “none of these candidates” option without Trump on the ballot. 

Her continued presence in the race has angered some in the party who are calling for her to drop out so support can consolidate behind Trump. If he snags that label, it would open up opportunities for joint fundraising between his campaign and the national party. 

By sticking it out as an obstacle between Trump and the Republican nomination, Haley “runs the risk of leaving a very bad taste in the mouths of Republican primary voters,” Bartlett said. 

Steinhauser expects the tenor of the race has also ruined Haley’s chances of getting a Cabinet position in a possible second Trump administration, and put her “past the point of no return” on a Trump endorsement.

“It’s gotten very personal, very vitriolic. There’s a lot of dislike between the two candidates,” Steinhauser said of the Republican race.

Haley this week called Trump “unhinged” and knocked him as a “huge weight” on GOP candidates after Democrats won a key special election in New York. 

And in the run-up to the Palmetto State’s Feb. 24 primary, her campaign has rolled out mobile billboards in South Carolina hitting Trump over his age and calling out his rhetoric on veterans after he made comments about her husband, who is currently deployed. Trump has also taken continued swipes at Haley.

Both White House hopefuls have pointed toward the general election. While the race appears headed toward a Biden-Trump rematch, Haley has underscored her electability, highlighting polls that show her faring better than Trump in hypothetical match-ups with the incumbent Democrat. 

“This is a very odd cycle,” Bartlett said, noting the “incredibly strange” setup of a former president as the party front-runner while also facing several legal battles. For Haley, hanging on as Trump’s last challenger, “it’s just very unclear what her strategy is right now.”