Haley’s Nevada loss underscores her Trump dilemma

Nikki Haley’s defeat in Nevada’s primary on Tuesday has dealt an embarrassing blow to her candidacy as she heads toward a showdown with former President Trump in South Carolina. 

Though the former U.N. ambassador has been seen as a long-shot candidate, she’s benefited from a cash windfall in recent months, spurring hopes she might at least be able to close the gap with Trump in her home state’s primary Feb. 24.

But her loss to a “none of these candidates” option in the Silver State primary has ramped up pressure on the candidate to either drop out soon despite the media and donor attention she’s receiving or risk a potentially humiliating defeat to Trump in her home state and beyond.

“Haley had a bad night in Nevada, seemingly on track for a miserable night in South Carolina later on this month and potentially a disastrous Super Tuesday, should she choose to stay in the race,” said GOP strategist Brian Seitchik, arguing the loss adds to evidence of Trump’s enduring dominance over the GOP. 

The “none of these candidates” option, which was required on ballots in the primary, was projected to win more than double Haley’s votes, according to Decision Desk HQ. 

A win in the state-run primary would have been merely symbolic for Haley, as the Nevada GOP plans to allocate its 26 delegates only based on the results of party-run caucuses Thursday.

But the loss stands out because Haley was the only top active name on the primary ballot, after Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out. 

Trump, on the other hand, will appear as the only significant candidate in the Thursday caucuses.

“For people that don’t understand the dynamics of Nevada politics, it does look like an embarrassment” for Haley, Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said of the primary results.  

The Nevada GOP sparked confusion in the state’s nominating process by shirking the presidential preference primary required under a new state law, charging forward instead with its long-standing caucuses — and barring any candidate whose name was on the primary ballot from participating.

Given the Nevada setup, observers have long expected Trump to have Nevada’s delegates all but locked up. Haley skipped campaigning in the state, turning her focus instead to South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states that vote in March. 

Asked before the primary how worried the campaign was that Haley could lose to the “none” ballot option, her campaign manager Betsy Ankney stressed that the team had not “spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada” and did not want to pay to participate in the “rigged” caucus system. 

“Even Donald Trump knows that when you play penny slots the house wins. We didn’t bother to play a game rigged for Trump. We’re full steam ahead in South Carolina and beyond,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas told The Hill after the primary results came in. 

Bonjean noted Haley’s choice not to invest in the Silver State but said the move amid Nevada’s confusing system risks making it look “like she has egg on her face.”

While candidates couldn’t take part in both contests, state law allows registered Republicans to cast ballots in both, opening the door for Trump supporters to cast protest votes against Haley. Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) said last month that he planned to select the “none” option in the primary and then vote for Trump in the caucuses. 

Republican strategist Doug Heye said the “none” win is a boost for Trump. 

“If you’ve got all these candidates listed except Donald Trump, and then you have an option that says ‘not any of these people,’ by default, that’s Trump,” said Heye. 

Haley’s loss is the latest sign of Trump’s power in the party and points to a likely bad outcome for her in the Palmetto State, where the former president has been beating her in polls.

“I understand [Haley] didn’t put any resources in [Nevada] because there were no delegates to be won. All that being said, losing to ‘none of the above’ is an embarrassment,” Seitchik said.

The former president called Tuesday a “bad night for Nikki Haley.” 

“It has been a while since the political world was treated to such a humiliating, embarrassing, and utterly overwhelming defeat than Nikki Haley suffered yesterday in Nevada,” Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement. 

On the other hand, Republican strategist Rina Shah argued there wasn’t much for Haley to lose in the Tuesday primary anyway. 

“There was nothing that could have happened in Nevada that gave her some added momentum going into South Carolina,” Shah said, arguing Haley “didn’t need anything” out of the Silver State “to live to see another day in this race.”  

With Trump expected to take the Thursday caucuses, he’s set to head into South Carolina with wins in the first three early states — after beating Haley in both Iowa and New Hampshire last month — while the former South Carolina governor struggles to narrow his lead on her home turf.

The latest polling averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show Haley trailing the former president by 31 percentage points in the Palmetto State. And looking toward the dozen-plus contests on Super Tuesday, March 5, Trump is ahead of Haley by nearly 60 points in national averages.  

Some strategists have suggested Haley could claim a strong showing in South Carolina if she comes within 10 or 15 points of Trump. But Bonjean argued the only way for her to avoid embarrassment is to score an unlikely outright win.

“It will be a real turning point for her, if she comes in second. And the question will be: How long will she want the campaign to continue after that?” Bonjean said. 

“Clearly, the bulk of the states have not made their decisions. She has every right to stay in. But the trend is moving in the wrong direction for her,” he said. 

Haley is the last candidate standing between Trump and the Republican nomination. 

Top contenders such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who was long considered the top Trump alternative, exited the race as the early states began to weigh in, leaving Haley as the last long-shot bid challenging Trump for the party nod. 

She saw surges of momentum last year after strong debate performances and reported a significant cash influx in January, signaling to some that she has the resources to stick it out through South Carolina and beyond. 

But the former U.N. ambassador’s bid has faced questions about why she’s still running, given Trump’s substantial polling lead. Some have guessed she’s laying the groundwork for a 2028 run, while others think she’s waiting for Trump to hit a snag with his various ongoing legal battles.

Some Republicans have urged her to drop out so the party can consolidate behind Trump. The former president can’t become the party’s presumptive nominee until he earns a certain number of delegates. Should he do that, he would then be allowed to open up joint fundraising opportunities with his campaign and the Republican National Committee. 

It looks like Haley “has the money to continue” toward Super Tuesday, Heye suggested. “And then we’ll have to see from there.” 

Amid the skepticism, Haley’s campaign says they’re in it for the long haul. 

On Tuesday, her team rolled out a new South Carolina ad — and she’s hosting a campaign event in the Super Tuesday state of California on Wednesday. 

“This is an unusual race,” Shah said. “So let’s expect some funny outcomes here and there, but it’s not until next month, March, that we need to be worried about real embarrassment for Nikki Haley.”