Immigration concerns pose threat to Democrats in race for Santos seat

Immigration concerns are threatening to tank Democrats’ chances at flipping the seat formerly held by ex-Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.).

Republicans have sought to tie former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) to President Biden’s immigration policies ahead of the special election next week as members of Congress haggle over a bipartisan border security bill.

The attacks underscore the extent to which Republicans are seizing on immigration as a political bludgeon in swing districts across the country.

“Of all the things that the Republican side could be talking about right now, I doubt there’s anything more relevant to the Republican base than immigration,” said New York-based Republican strategist Jay Townsend.

The seat representing New York’s 3rd Congressional District has been vacant since December, when Santos became just the sixth House member in U.S. history to be expelled from their seat. This came after revelations that he made a wide range of false claims about his personal and professional background and criminal charges being filed against him.

In the aftermath of that controversy, and with President Biden having won the district under its current boundaries in 2020, Democrats quickly zeroed in on the seat as a prime pickup opportunity. But Republicans have been hammering Suozzi on immigration, seeking to tie him to Biden, whose policies on the issue have been unpopular, according to polling.

Suozzi, who has sought to paint his record in the House as more moderate and bipartisan, has come out in favor of the bipartisan Senate package. The bill includes measures like speeding up asylum claims being adjudicated and giving the president the authority to close the border to migrants who don’t have asylum appointments if the daily average of encounters reaches 5,000.

But it also appears to be on life support as numerous members of GOP Senate leadership have come out against it.

Suozzi represented the 3rd District for six years before not seeking reelection in 2022 to instead run for the Democratic nomination for governor of New York, a race he ultimately lost.

The Republican nominee for the special election, Mazi Pilip, has denounced the legislation as an “absolute non-starter,” arguing that it “simply puts into law the invasion happening at the southern border.”

Pilip also attacked Suozzi for supporting the deal, accusing him of working with Biden to “open our borders” previously when he was in Congress.

“If ‘Sanctuary Tom Suozzi’ returns to Washington, he will continue to support Joe Biden’s agenda of open borders and sanctuary cities 100% of the time,” she said in her statement on the legislation.

Townsend said he saw four ads while watching a college basketball game all blaming Suozzi for the situation with immigration in the country.

“Democrats in general are on the defensive about it, and if I were him, I’d be looking for a way to counter it,” he said.

Suozzi’s campaign has rolled out a couple of ads defending his record on immigration while in Congress. One ad highlights a vote Suozzi took in 2018 in support of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, showing an interview he gave on Fox News calling it an “important agency” with an “important job to do.”

A narrator says that Suozzi will work with both parties to shut down illegal immigration routes and support pathways to citizenship for those who follow the rules.

“Anything else you might hear is garbage,” Suozzi said, referring to GOP attacks against him.

Jay Jacobs, the chair of the Nassau County Democratic Party, argued that Republicans often try to scare voters or make them angry and are using the same playbook with their immigration arguments.

“They basically put out ads that would have you believe it’s Tom Suozzi that’s loading up these cars in Mexico and bringing them across the border. It’s ridiculous, but unfortunately, voters pay attention to headlines and very often don’t get into the details of the story,” he said. “And that works for the Republicans’ advantage.”

But Jacobs said Suozzi is avoiding a tendency that Democrats have to avoid issues that may not be favorable to their side, facing the attacks “head on”, including with the TV ads.

Suozzi attended a press conference last month that Pilip gave to criticize Biden’s immigration policies. After she finished, Suozzi then stood before reporters to respond to Pilip and share what he supports on the issue.

“It’s a humane approach,” Jacobs said. “And then, on the other hand, a very strong approach as it relates to secure borders. He’s done that, he’s made it clear, so I think that has blunted the issue.”

But former Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.) argued that Suozzi may struggle to change the narrative around Democrats and immigration, since it is predominant in the public view.

An Emerson College poll released last month found a plurality of voters in the district, 26 percent, listed immigration as their most important issue, followed by the economy at 22 percent and crime at 15 percent.

Immigration has become an increasingly pressing issue in the New York City area as the region has absorbed an influx of migrants being sent north from southern Republican governors.

“This is an election where I think those two issues are predominating — immigration and crime, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a Democratic candidate running in that area,” Faso said.

He said public opinion about the issue is already mostly set, and changing their minds will be difficult. The Emerson poll found only a third of voters in the 3rd District, which comfortably voted for Biden in 2020, approve of Biden overall.

Faso said the parties will take away their own narratives from the race regardless of the outcome, but the race will be a “wake-up call” for Democrats across the country and specifically in New York, a state that is seen as key to the party winning back control of the House in November.

“I think anyone who thinks that the Republican first-term incumbents running for reelection are going to be easy to beat, given the way the issues are flowing in New York state, I think they’re very much mistaken,” he said.

Still, the poll found some encouraging signs for Suozzi. He led Pilip by 3 points, just inside the margin of error, but he appears to have an advantage in enthusiasm, leading with those who said they’re “very likely” to vote by 14 points.

Most voters 18 to 39 said they disapprove of Biden, but they support Suozzi over Pilip by almost 20 points.

New York Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said the stakes are high for Democrats in the race. He thinks voters in the district are mainly interested in “bringing back good governance” in the aftermath of Santos and expressed doubts about the ability to win at least some voters over on Democratic messaging on the issue.

He said some amount of opposition will be “built in” for voters not siding with Democrats on immigration, but Suozzi can still prop up his support for the Senate bill, which would be the first bipartisan agreement on immigration in decades, while Republicans including former President Trump oppose it.

But he also pointed to other issues for Suozzi to focus on in the waning days of the campaign, such as abortion, which has been a rallying issue for Democratic voters throughout the country.

Strategists from both parties agreed that the race will likely be a tight finish and should be taken as a sign for what to expect in the battle for the House majority in November.

“It’ll tell us a lot about how New York is going to fare in its ability to help Democrats take the House back,” Smikle said.