Haley seeks game-changing win in South Carolina despite uphill climb

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is working to muster momentum in the weeks ahead of the South Carolina Republican primary, which could prove to be a moment of reckoning for her presidential hopes.

Polling shows Haley trailing former President Trump in her home state, with The Hill-Decision Desk HQ average showing Trump up by more than 30 points in the state.

Despite the uphill climb, Haley’s allies say there is still enough time for her to close the gap with the former president in South Carolina, and at least one recent poll has shown her gaining support in the Palmetto State.

A poll released this week by American Promise and the Tyson Group showed Haley reaching 31 percent support, the first time she has received more than 30 percent in a South Carolina poll so far. 

However, a Monmouth University-Washington Post poll released Thursday showed Trump leading with 58 percent support, up from 46 percent in September. Haley’s support also grew from 18 percent in September to 32 percent. 

“Nikki Haley’s ability to come from behind is record-breaking in South Carolina,” said Dave Wilson, a South Carolina-based GOP strategist, referring to Haley’s past electoral wins in the state. “Is she going to be able to do it this time? Probably not because President Trump has such a high rating in almost every poll.” 

On Monday, the Trump campaign rolled out a memo predicting a loss for Haley in her home state, calling the prospect “a humiliation.” 

“South Carolina is different than New Hampshire and, as such, poses serious questions about the viability of the Haley campaign,” wrote senior Trump campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita. “First, there is no tradition of cross-over voting in South Carolina, and Democrats have their Primary on February 3rd as part of the reshaped map and timing schedule for national Democrats. Anyone who votes in the February 3rd Democrat primary cannot vote in the GOP primary on February 24th, so Nikki’s losing strategy of counting on Democrats to pollute the Primary won’t work.”

Haley’s campaign responded with their own memo, asking, “Why is Donald Trump so obsessed with us?” with a “Mean Girls” meme attached. 

Several factors are playing into Trump’s lead, including his national popularity among Republican primary voters as well as his status as the party’s de facto incumbent. But some South Carolina-specific explanations also explain why the former president is dominating. One of those factors is the demographic changes in South Carolina that have taken place since Haley left the governor’s mansion in 2017. 

Census data shows that the Palmetto State had a 1.7 percent population growth rate in 2023 — the highest of any state — and gained more than 90,000 new residents. According to The Associated Press, 90 percent of South Carolina’s new population came from people moving from another U.S. state.  

“When you have that level of people moving in, they’re bringing a different level of politics, themselves, to the table,” Wilson said. 

“We went back through in 2020, and we were able to identify based upon voting habits,” he continued. “We were able to identify Trump voters, and as a matter of fact, in some key Senate races in the state Senate, we were able to identify thousands of people who were new to the election process, new to the Republican Party because of Donald Trump.” 

“Those folks have been part of what’s been the evolution of the Republican Party as it is right now,” he said. “It’s the party of Trump, and that is a very difficult thing for Nikki Haley to overcome at this moment.”

Still, Haley’s supporters argue that Trump is on a weaker footing as the front-runner in the GOP primary. 

“If Joe Biden, the incumbent president was only receiving 55 percent of the vote or less in his room, then all of us would be saying how the race is ready to move on and how dire of chances he has in November,” said Alex Stroman, a South Carolina-based Republican strategist. 

Stroman also noted that Trump’s recent attacks on Haley continuing to remain in the race could stand to hurt him with voters concerned about issues such as crime, immigration and the economy. 

“Two states have voted. Two of the smallest states in the country have voted, and he can’t even have a blowout win in either of those places,” Stroman said. “If he were truly confident about his standing in the party, he would be going around having speeches that talked about his vision for the country. But instead, he’s trying to punch at Nikki Haley and trying to rig the game so that she’s forced out of the race.”

Haley and her allies have also touted polling that shows her to be a formidable general election candidate against President Biden. A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows Haley beating Biden 47 to 42 percent support in a head-to-head match-up. However, Biden defeated Haley by 7 points in a five-person race including third-party candidates. 

While Trump in many ways has shifted his focus to the national general election, Haley has remained laser-focused on closing the gap with the former president in her home state. 

On Thursday, Haley’s campaign rolled out a new ad campaign titled “It’s a Great Day in South Carolina,” which is aimed at touting her record as governor and “to combat Donald Trump’s lies.” And on Thursday, Haley’s campaign launched a series of ads titled “Grumpy Old Men” to target Trump and Biden on their age. 

Strategists say that for Haley to make headway in closing the gap with Trump, she needs to focus on her foreign policy strengths as former U.N. ambassador while tying them to a top issue for South Carolina Republican primary voters: immigration. 

The Monmouth University-Washington Post poll showed 62 percent of South Carolina primary voters saying they trust Trump more on immigration, while 22 percent said they trusted Haley more. 

“That is that blend of domestic and international issues that somebody has got to start addressing,” Wilson said. “And I think if Nikki Haley started addressing it from that standpoint, foreign policy takes on a whole bigger issue in towns like Greenville and Charleston and Florence and Columbia and Greer and Anderson and Myrtle Beach.”

“If she’s going to gain any additional traction and close that gap, she’s going to have start tying it back to what’s going on in peoples’ own backyards and how her experience will make a difference,” he continued. 

Haley responded to skepticism about the durability of her campaign during an interview with “CBS Mornings” on Tuesday, saying her campaign is building momentum state by state. 

“In New Hampshire, I moved 25 points in three weeks,” Haley told the network. “We are anywhere and everywhere in South Carolina.”

“My goal has always been to keep building,” she continued. “Now our goal in South Carolina, come in even stronger. That’s what we’re going to focus on doing.” 

While there are questions about the future of her donors, Haley is in a strong position financially for now. Haley’s campaign said it raised $17 million last quarter and started 2024 with $14 million cash on hand. Her campaign has also touted recent fundraising hauls in the days following the New Hampshire primary. 

“Money, money, money,” Wilson said. “If she doesn’t have dollars flowing into the campaign, she’s going to run out of gas.”