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Democratic concerns grow amid RFK Jr. ballot push in battleground states

by Hanna Trudo - 01/26/24 5:30 AM ET

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement Tuesday that he had amassed enough signatures to qualify for the New Hampshire ballot for the general election, after already getting on Utah’s, is drawing fresh concern from Democrats over how he could transform the race.

Freeing himself from the Democratic Party to run as an independent, Kennedy was ineligible to appear as a candidate in New Hampshire’s primary Tuesday, when voters sent President Biden and former President Trump to resounding victories in their party contests.

But after months of speculation about the credibility of his campaign, Kennedy found success in a small battleground state nonetheless, giving Democrats pause that he could muddy their path to the White House.

“Whatever point Robert Kennedy Jr. wants to make, the time for making it is over,” said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic operative and political commentator. “All this bulls–t about No Labels and third-party runs; RFK Jr.’s vanity project is an embarrassment to his family’s legacy and a danger to voters.”

Biden’s write-in win in the Granite State, which went as expected, meant the president and his inner circle shifted quickly to Trump, effectively preparing for a rematch that few voters have said they want. He has not publicly entertained the possibility that the election could turn into a three-way contest this fall, with Kennedy as an attractive choice for voters in states with prime electoral votes up for grabs.

“It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee,” Biden said in a statement released by his campaign this week. “And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher.”

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The spoiler theory — that there’s another potentially lethal force lurking, in the form of Kennedy — has been minimized in the discourse, at least publicly, as Biden looks to project confidence as voting commences.

That hasn’t stopped Kennedy from trying to play his cards well. He has taken the unusual step of manufacturing an entirely new party as a way to circumvent ballot signature requirements for independent candidates in states with tougher benchmarks to meet than New Hampshire, which only needs 3,000 signatures.

According to a release sent by his campaign earlier this month, the effort, dubbed the “We The People” party, is showing that Kennedy can get on ballots in Biden’s home state of Delaware, the reliably Democratic California and Hawaii, as well as North Carolina and Mississippi. His campaign said it also created a similar party in Texas, on Democrats’ wish list each cycle, under the name the “Texas Independent Party.”

In a newly launched website for Kennedy’s ballot access campaign, Team Kennedy shows his effort is “in progress” in more than a dozen states, including Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a voter rally, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023, in Phoenix. (Matt York / The Associated Press)

Some swing states such as Arizona and Georgia in particular are projected to be hard to win for either side in the general. Trump is polling ahead in both in many surveys, but Biden’s narrow victories last time give Democrats reasons to believe they are still in play this year.

Becoming an official Independent candidate on the ballot in Arizona, for example, takes 43,000 signatures at least three months before Election Day — no small task for a candidate outside of the two-party system.

A spokesperson for the Kennedy campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Some Democrats believe Kennedy won’t be able to get on the ballot in those states and others with steep requirements. If he isn’t able to appear in the more consequential battlegrounds with more electoral votes than New Hampshire and Utah, he’s less likely to significantly throw off the course of the race, some believe.

“Who cares that he is polling at 10-12 percent nationally right now? It is a mirage; it only matters if he gets on the ballot in the five states that will determine the election,” said Doug Gordon, co-CEO of UpShift Strategies and a Democratic campaign and communications veteran.

“If he does, and he polls that high in those states, then he is a real threat [and] problem. But ballot access isn’t easy,” he said.

The third-party group No Labels has spooked Democrats who view its sizable funding and apparent lane for unhappy voters as potential threats to Biden. While some believe Kennedy falls in the same category as No Labels in terms of damage to the Democratic path to Pennsylvania Ave, others see the environmental lawyer as less coordinated and potentially less viable for millions of voters if he can’t meet the deadlines.

“No Labels has a tens of millions of dollar ballot access campaign going at the moment. It is not clear, at all, RFK does,” Gordon said. “Or even could resource it to that level if he wanted to.”

In the lead-up to November, Kennedy is joined by Cornel West, a leading scholar and progressive movement leader, in the battle for the independent vote, though few Democrats are as fearful of West potentially racking up signatures. Additionally, physician Jill Stein is campaigning with the Green Party for the second time.

Democrats are mostly behind the president’s strategy to cancel out the noise around Kennedy and other lesser-known contenders for now in favor of focusing on Trump.

“The president should absolutely not waste his bully pulpit on a conspiracy theorist on an ego trip,” Gordon added, referring to Kennedy’s wading into unproven and controversial positions.

“Will outside groups begin to engage like they are around No Labels? Maybe.”

“Right now he seems much closer to a Jill Stein … [than] a Ross Perot,” he said, adding, “that could change.”

Still, Kennedy’s supporters are counting the New Hampshire success as a small but important marker that can help prove to voters and organizers that there is support forming on the ground for his cause.

“We kicked ass in getting Bobby ballot access,” Eric Jackman, an anti-war activist working to promote Kennedy’s state campaign, told The Hill after the primary. The “ballot effort was well done with strong enthusiasm from grassroots volunteers who are psyched about RFK Jr.”

“With 70 percent of Americans not satisfied with either Trump or Biden as an option,” he went on, “Kennedy has a real opening and opportunity to secure more support and become the first Independent president since Washington.”

Another well-placed Granite State progressive who is sympathetic to anti-establishment candidates like Kennedy said clearing the threshold for ballots in a purple state like New Hampshire provides an element of credibility to his campaign, nearly a year away from Election Day.

“It gives validation to RFK’s campaign strategy and demonstrates the need and popularity of voices besides Presidents Biden and Trump,” said the Concord progressive. “I look forward to hearing more from RFK’s campaign on labor issues and the need for world peace.”

Discussion of Biden’s relative polling weakness — losing to Trump in key states that he won in 2020 — got some reprieve, at least within his own party, after he beat out marginal competitors Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson on Tuesday.

But Democrats say that contest was an uneventful precursor to what is expected to be a competitive general election, where an energized Trump base and apathetic Biden backers from last cycle could collide with voters looking beyond the major mainstream candidates.

“Getting blown out in a race where you campaigned hard and the other guy wasn’t even on the ballot is about as clear a sign as there can be,” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic strategist.

“It’s time to end the vanity project and come together to actually try and defeat Donald Trump,” Schwerin said.

Tags 2024 presidential election Joe Biden Robert F. Kennedy Jr.