Haley faces tough path, difficult decisions in battle with Trump

Nikki Haley is staring down an increasingly difficult path in her bid to catch up with former President Trump after her disappointing finish in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Haley fell short of her hopes for an upset victory in the Granite State, losing to Trump by about 11 points after some polls weeks earlier showed her within striking distance of overtaking him.

The former South Carolina governor will now turn her focus toward her home state, which hosts its first-in-the-South primary on Feb. 24.

Skeptics in the GOP doubt she has much of a chance, despite the home-field advantage, and they argue her future is likely to be determined by her wallet as much as her will.

“It’s not just whether she has the appetite to continue — it’s whether the donors do as well,” said Republican strategist Josh Novotney. “I think she takes it day by day. I wouldn’t be shocked if she stayed in it a long time. I wouldn’t be shocked if she got out in a few days.”

Trump won New Hampshire with 54 percent of the vote, compared with 43 percent for Haley, according to Decision Desk HQ.

New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Mike Dennehy said he had expected a slightly bigger Trump victory but noted the former president saw a “resounding” result from registered GOP voters in the state.

CNN exit polling found 7 in 10 Haley voters were unaffiliated with either party — while 7 in 10 Trump voters were registered Republicans.

“There’s really no good news coming out of New Hampshire for Nikki Haley when you only receive 25 percent of the Republican vote,” Dennehy said. The CNN poll found 27 percent of her New Hampshire voters were registered Republicans.

Haley’s campaign is taking a confident tone ahead of the Feb. 24 contest in South Carolina, telling supporters in a Tuesday memo that “we aren’t going anywhere.”  Haley promised that the race is “far from over.”

“New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go,” Haley said. “And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.”

Haley’s team rolled out new South Carolina ads Wednesday hitting Trump and touting her record as governor.

Haley is polling around 34 points behind Trump in the Palmetto State, according to averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill — a much wider gap than she’d seen in polls ahead of New Hampshire.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R), who dropped out of the Republican presidential race in November, endorsed Trump this week, a move seen as a knock to Haley.

Dennehy predicted Haley will exit the race in the coming weeks because of Trump’s daunting lead — and to avoid embarrassment on her home turf.

Novotney said he expects Haley will regroup with her advisers every day and stay in touch with her top donors as the South Carolina primary approaches. He said the campaign will likely assess the state and conduct polling to get a feel of what to expect and decide whether to remain in the race based on those results.

He said she has some time to decide since the primary is still about four weeks away, but she may seek to avoid facing off against Trump if the numbers portend a bad loss is likely. 

“I think a lot of people don’t want to get embarrassed in their home state,” Novotney said. “She’s not governor anymore … but she was a two-term governor and obviously has a lot of roots and supporters in South Carolina, so I’m guessing that if she’s gonna get annihilated, [she] probably does not want that embarrassment.”

Strategist Matthew Bartlett said Haley is up against an “ugly” map given Trump leads in polls of South Carolina and states holding Super Tuesday contests in March. He contended it will be hard for her campaign to convince donors to keep backing her after a lukewarm New Hampshire finish, if she doesn’t see a major momentum shift in the weeks ahead.

Haley will also have considerations about her future political career and the possibility of making another run for president, said GOP strategist Mehek Cooke.

She said Haley ending her campaign on the earlier side would allow her to continue the positive message she has been trying to promote and set herself up for the future.

“But if she’s not the unifier, she’s not positive, she loses her home state, it’s a bad track record,” she said.

Cooke said Haley ran a strong campaign, but she should recognize that the party is uniting around Trump, including Scott and other South Carolina politicians such as Rep. Nancy Mace (R).

She said she thinks donors will urge her to stay in the race for now, but her role is better served acting as a “change agent” to bring more women, conservatives, moderates and independents into a coalition that the GOP will need in November.

“If the writing’s on the wall and the voters are not behind her, then the right thing to do is to go full force, join the majority of GOP voters and defeat Joe Biden,” Cooke said.

But Bartlett also pointed to the hurdles Trump faces along the campaign trail. The former president has been criminally indicted in multiple cases, and many have wondered whether his courtroom battles could derail his White House bid.

“We’re in very disruptive times. Second place could be important if first place goes to jail,” Bartlett said.

Trump ripped Haley in his remarks after the New Hampshire race was called Tuesday, insisting she had a “very bad night” and putting pressure on her to drop out.

“I thought it was interesting that Trump gave a very conciliatory speech in Iowa, yet returned to the viciousness attacking Nikki Haley in New Hampshire,” Bartlett said.

Whether Haley drops out or not, Bartlett argued Trump’s lead makes this “probably the start of one of the longest, most brutal, vicious, potentially vile, general election campaigns that our country’s ever seen.”