The New Hampshire GOP primary is offering a narrow runway for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley as she looks to defy the odds and beat former President Trump in the Granite State on Tuesday.
Trump won last week’s Iowa caucuses by a resounding 30-point margin against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with Haley finishing in third. After DeSantis announced Sunday he would suspend his campaign and endorse Trump, all eyes are turning to Haley as she faces an uphill climb to topple the president in New Hampshire.
An average of New Hampshire polls compiled by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill showed Trump at 48 percent and Haley at 36 percent in the state. But even if Haley performs well in New Hampshire, her path heading into South Carolina and beyond only looks more precarious.
Here’s what these GOP pundits are predicting in the New Hampshire GOP primary:
Double-digit win for Trump
Name: Dave Carney, New Hampshire-based GOP strategist who’s worked on presidential campaigns for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga), former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, the late Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kansas)
By what margin? Double digits
Analysis: “He has a message that resonates with right-of-center voters. It’s the economy and people … and the border. And, you think back, are we better off today than we were three years ago? And the answer’s no … no one made a case for why they would be better. It was really a lack of messaging.
“Haley wants to appeal to independents. Perfectly good idea. Wants to not offend Trump voters. Perfectly good idea, but it’s a difficult message.”
Independents will lean toward Haley
Name: Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of Republican Main Street Partnership
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? At least 5 percent
Analysis: “Because of the independents get to vote, where a lot of states they don’t get to. So I think the [independents] will lead towards her. But the Trump base will carry them through. He’s got a very strong base.”
‘Trump will be pushing 60 percent’
Name: Mike Dennehy, New Hampshire-based GOP strategist who worked on the late Sen. John McCain’s presidential bids
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? “I think it will probably be 20 points, and Trump will be pushing 60 percent.”
Analysis: “Donald Trump pretty much all year long for the last six months has been beating all Republicans heavily among Republican voters. He’s been beating all the candidates heavily among Republican voters. Really, the race for the Republican voters has been over for a while. It just became a question of driving independent voters out, and how much of a percentage the alternative candidate could get. And what I think Nikki Haley has never embraced [is] the mantle of insurgent candidate, and that’s where I think she has failed.”
‘It seems almost impossible now’
Name: Dave Wilson, South Carolina-based GOP strategist and former president of the Palmetto Family Council
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? “If voters vote in a true two-person race, and some folks are gonna — will waste a vote, perhaps, but if you do it as a head-to-head between Trump and Haley, it’s a two-to-one split Trump.”
Analysis: “He’s gaining momentum and showing significant strength in this race, and it begs the question whether or not the groundwork that Nikki Haley has done is gonna be enough to get anywhere close to a less than 10-point spread, and it seems almost impossible now with DeSantis out of the race.”
‘Trump is the nominee, that is clear now’
Name: David Woodard, emeritus professor of political science at Clemson University and Republican political consultant
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? N/A
Analysis: “Frankly, I think the DeSantis withdrawal has made the Trump nomination inevitable, and that Nikki Haley will flounder in New Hampshire and even lose in South Carolina. Trump is the nominee, that is clear now, and any continued contest is pointless.”
‘Haley is tailor-made for New Hampshire’
Name: Alice Stewart, Republican strategist who worked on presidential campaigns for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.)
Who do you think will win? Trump, but Haley has a chance
By what margin? “My guess, if I was a betting person, I would say something along the lines of Trump, 51, Haley, 45.”
Analysis: “I think Nikki Haley is tailor-made for New Hampshire in terms of her you know, certainly more moderate views, her position: reducing federal involvement, her position on the life issue and guns, and the fact that you’ve had Gov. [Chris] Sununu out here really campaigning hard for her has been a tremendous help.
“It’s smart for her to continue to point out that in the head-to-head general election matchups, she fares better than Trump against Joe Biden and you know, look, that’s ultimately what the party should be looking at, is who is the best general election candidate. Unfortunately, they’re looking at the sugar high they get from Donald Trump.”
Trump pushes 60 percent, ‘primary effectively concluded’
Name: Scott Jennings, Republican strategist who worked on presidential campaigns for former President George W. Bush and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah)
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? N/A
Analysis: “I anticipate Trump winning and pushing into the mid-50s and perhaps close to 60% tomorrow. At that point, the primary will be effectively concluded. This is the most fertile ground Haley will have on the map, and to lose substantially here would be tough to recover. The bottom line is that Trump is popular among Republican voters. And it will be Republican voters — not independents — who decide the GOP primary.”
‘You never know in New Hampshire’
Name: Matthew Bartlett, New Hampshire-based GOP strategist who worked on former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman’s presidential bid
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? “I think it’s 15 [points] and I’ll actually take the over.”
Analysis: “It’s a weird mix of his strength as the former president, as an incumbent, combined with what is now a one-on-one. The GOP establishment used to always say if we can narrow this race down to a one-on-one, Trump loses after only winning, you know, well under 50 percent. … I think it was 30 something percent in 2016. Well, we now have a dynamic where Nikki Haley probably needed both Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy to stay in this race to draw some votes away from him and to change the narrative. You now just have what looks to be coalescing around Donald Trump in the hours before the New Hampshire primary. It is starting to look more like a general election matchup rather than a true primary contest. And the only thing I will say is, but you never know in New Hampshire.”
DeSantis voters will ‘break evenly’ between Trump, Haley
Name: Gregg Keller, Missouri-based GOP strategist who’s worked on presidential campaigns for Bush, McCain and Romney
Who do you think will win? Trump
By what margin? 15-16 points
Analysis: “I think if you look at the polling right now, I think it’s pointing towards a Trump win by between 18 and 20 points. I think it’s probably going to tighten a little bit. Obviously, DeSantis is out of the race. You know, a lot of times people make the mistake of thinking, ‘Oh, well, DeSantis was a Trump alternative candidate, therefore when he gets out all that support is gonna flow to the other Trump alternative candidate, that being in this instance Nikki Haley.’ You know, we’ve already seen … actually, that’s a misnomer generally people have about polling. Those DeSantis voters who are fleeing his candidacy will more or less break evenly between Trump and Haley, and … we’ve seen that already.”