Haley faces hurdles in toppling Trump even after Christie exits race

Nikki Haley faces the challenge of surpassing former President Trump in what has become a close contest in New Hampshire even with Chris Christie now out of the race.

Christie’s decision to drop out less than a week before the Iowa caucuses is the latest development to boost Haley as she looks to consolidate support after rising in the polls and putting up impressive fundraising totals.

But although Christie and Haley were likely competing for similar voters, the former New Jersey governor’s supporters may not all automatically get behind her, giving her work to do.

“We’re assuming that there’s going to be a lot of overlap between these two constituencies, but of course, not every Christie voter is going to go for her, and of course, some Christie voters may break to other candidates,” said Ashley Koning, the director of Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

Christie, a former Trump ally who broke with the former president over his false claims of the 2020 presidential election being stolen, entered the 2024 race positioning himself as the chief opponent of Trump. He was consistently the most willing to hammer Trump over his record and his false statements in a Republican field that has until recently mostly avoided calling him out. 

“I would rather lose by telling the truth than lie in order to win,” Christie said at the Wednesday town hall announcing his decision to drop out. “And I feel no differently today because this is a fight for the soul of our party and the soul of our country.” 

Haley is generally seen as one of the more moderate candidates in the race, suggesting those who backed Christie might migrate to her. Indeed, some polls have shown Christie supporters, who are largely looking to have the GOP move on from Trump, indicating they see Haley as their second choice. 

An Emerson College poll released Thursday showed Trump leading Haley in New Hampshire, 44 percent to 28 percent, with Christie in third at 12 percent. Of Christie’s supporters, 52 percent listed Haley as their second choice, far more than any other candidate. 

Haley has surged in the polls in recent months, and some surveys have shown her even competitive with Trump. 

Christie at one time polled as high as second place in the Granite State but struggled to keep that spot with Haley rising. He dropped out after weeks of pressure, citing not wanting to further split the vote in the effort to defeat Trump for the GOP nomination. 

Koning said Christie’s motivation for ending his campaign is unclear, especially considering the “hot mic” moment that came shortly before the town hall Wednesday. 

Christie was heard speaking to someone at the town hall saying Haley is “gonna get smoked” by Trump in the GOP face, adding “she’s not up to this.” The audio cut out shortly after. 

“I think any of us would think before we heard those hot mic comments that maybe there had been some internal deal struck or negotiation with Haley,” Koning said, adding that Christie’s comment “unravels” that theory. 

She said a question remains as to whether Christie had the impact he hoped for in taking down Trump, but Christie’s influence has waned as he went from a rising star in the party ahead of his 2016 presidential run to someone struggling to find his place in a party that overwhelmingly views him unfavorably. 

Christie had regularly criticized his other Republican rivals for their unwillingness to go after Trump as he had, a position that put him on the outs with much of the GOP. He did not endorse anyone during his speech on Wednesday and shed at least some doubt that he would do so because Haley and Ron DeSantis have not denounced Trump. 

“Anyone who is unwilling to say he is unfit to be president of the United States is unfit themselves to be president of the United States,” Christie said. 

But Republicans said they do not think whether Christie endorses will matter much in the race as voters will make their own decisions. 

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas), who ran for president before dropping out and backing Haley, argued the former United Nations ambassador is gaining momentum in the race because of her campaign, not anyone else’s actions. 

Hurd has been a sharp critic of Trump and would not support him if he is the nominee, a position Haley has not taken. He said other former candidates like Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) do not need to endorse a candidate to help stop Trump. 

“I don’t think that’s the case because let’s be honest, voters are going to make up their own mind,” Hurd said. 

New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Jim Merrill said he does not expect Christie to endorse anyone but doesn’t think it matters because Haley will still get the “lion’s share” of his supporters. 

“I think they’re going to understand that Chris Christie’s withdrawal is they got a choice. Do they still turn out and vote for someone who most closely aligns with them or not at all?” he said, adding that Haley still has to “earn it.” 

He said he expects Haley and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who has endorsed her and been an active advocate for her since, will be contacting Christie’s main backers to try to get their support. 

Merrill said he did not make too much of Christie’s hot mic comments, noting that deciding to enter and exit a presidential race is a tough decision and Wednesday was likely a “very emotional” day for him. He said “without question” Christie’s goal was to help someone other than Trump win the nomination. 

“The best thing that’s possible for that to happen, knowing that he didn’t have a path, clearing a path further for Nikki Haley, who … has the strongest chance of being an alternative nominee vs. Trump,” Merrill said. 

But Republican strategist Mary Anna Mancuso said the New Hampshire primary is just one contest and the challenge for Haley to overcome Trump would remain herculean even if she scores an upset victory there. 

“If Haley has an upset for Trump in New Hampshire, that still doesn’t get any closer to the nomination,” she said. “It would just be a good night for Nikki Haley.” 

She noted that Trump still is regularly reaching a majority in national polls and polls in other states, so coalescing the non-Trump vote is not enough for Haley, even if all the other candidates dropped out. 

“If they all supported Nikki Haley, it still isn’t going to change what is right now, as we are seeing, is the most viable outcome of Trump taking the nomination,” Mancuso said. 

Merrill argued that given Trump’s long-held status as a front-runner and his advantage of “quasi-incumbency,” Haley upsetting Trump in New Hampshire “dramatically resets the narrative going forward.” 

He said it would set the contest as a two-person race heading into Haley’s home state of South Carolina, which will hold its primary in late February. Trump would still be the favorite, but his goal is to end the race after New Hampshire, Merrill said. 

He added that a leading candidate would never want to give another candidate a second chance to get back in the race, and a Haley win would prolong the race and avoid a “knockout.” 

“I think she’s the one candidate that’s got momentum, and 12 days out, that’s exactly what you want,” Merrill said. “You want momentum, and you want a shot, and she has both.” 

Julia Manchester contributed.