RFK Jr.’s insurgent bid collides with issues over ballot access

Democrats fear Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will cause significant damage to President Biden in this year’s election — assuming the independent candidate can get on enough ballots.

Kennedy, the controversial scion of one of the most famous families in American politics, switched from Democrat to independent last year and has polled comfortably in many surveys.

But while Democrats and Republicans alike generally believe he poses more of a threat to the unpopular Biden than to GOP front-runner former President Trump, it’s not yet known how many Americans will see Kennedy’s name when they go to fill out their ballots this year. 

“It’s unclear how serious his campaign is going to be. Where’s he going to be on the ballot?” said Tim Miller, a Republican strategist and prominent Trump critic. “Are they the types of states that have more MAGA-type voters or the types of states that have more minority voters?”

Both parties are warily watching Kennedy just days away from the election’s first contests, as more state ballot deadlines approach. So far, the cycle’s biggest dark horse has made the ballot in Utah, with North Carolina to come in several weeks. Campaigns on both sides of the aisle have taken his candidacy more seriously in recent weeks as he maintains steady polling standing.

But despite meeting becoming eligible in Utah, there’s skepticism that Kennedy will be able to qualify for the ballots in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Experts caution that the qualification process is extremely expensive and varies widely in each state, making it difficult for a candidate operating outside of the two-party system. 

And even if Kennedy does gain access to a majority of the ballots, it’s unclear ultimately what impact he will have on the race.

Kennedy has positioned himself well for a conservative audience, including touting anti-vaccine rhetoric and adding Del Bigtree, an outspoken vaccine skeptic, to lead his communications effort. He’s also dabbled in nationalist talking points and conspiracy theories, as well as more campaign-specific tactics favored by the GOP, such as relying on big outside spending to pad his bid.

One of the central influences helping Kennedy’s candidacy is American Values 2024, a PAC partially funded by mega-donor Timothy Mellon that is looking to spend upwards of $15 million across swing states including Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — as well as solidly blue states such as New York and California, where supporters believe Kennedy could be competitive. 

Furthering Kennedy’s right-wing alignment, he also recently spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference and has criticized the move to remove Trump from the Colorado ballot over the former president’s involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. Together, the moves give potential Republican supporters confidence that he shares at least some of their grievances. 

In an appearance on Fox News on Monday, Kennedy strongly denounced taking Trump off ballots as a choice for voters, citing what he views as shaky legal standing as a lawyer. 

“I think it’s wrongheaded. I think it’s counterproductive,” Kennedy said. “I’m not a fan of President Trump’s, that’s why I’m running against him. And I’m confident that I’m going to beat him. But I don’t want to beat him on a slanted playing field. The American people want to see a fair fight.”

One Trump ally, the far-right controversial media figure and activist Laura Loomer, speculated that the Colorado move, coupled with Kennedy’s independent stature in the already unpredictable race, could end up hurting Trump before November. 

“I don’t think he’s better off,” Loomer said about Trump in an interview on “The John Fredericks Radio Show” last week, when asked whether Kennedy hurts the former president’s chances of success at a second White House term. “President Trump is being removed from the ballots in certain states. We don’t know how the Supreme Court is going to rule. We don’t know what’s going to happen.”

“If President Trump is taken off the ballot in these states, he’s not going to get the electoral votes,” she added. “People need to keep this in mind.” 

A former Trump official told The Hill on Thursday that “it’s absolutely a problem for Trump” to have Kennedy in the mix. “Among independents, Trump and Biden are both so unpopular that he could have a real impact,” the former official said. 

Still, not everyone in Trump’s orbit is convinced Kennedy would cut into his potential supporter base, simply because it’s not yet clear who the independent will ultimately perform best with. In North Carolina, for example, some speculate that Kennedy may not make the state’s early March ballot deadline.

“Not at all,” said a former early-state Trump associate about whether Kennedy’s presence could hurt the former president. The associate spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity. “Totally different demographic that would vote for him.”

Polls have perplexed operatives eager to decipher which of the two major front-runners Kennedy could influence. He’s tallied consistent double-digit support nationally, with one recent survey from The Wall Street Journal showing he pulls more from Trump than Biden among registered voters asked about a likely rematch. 

The polls presuppose, however, that Kennedy will appear on enough ballots to give voters that hypothetical, ultimately offering an antidote to the “lesser of two evils” narrative that has followed Trump and Biden among voters who do not want a 2020 rematch in the fall. 

Democrats have been casting doubt on how many places Kennedy will appear for months. While few in Biden’s circle comment publicly on his candidacy, some outside activists believe that if he does qualify in critical places, he could bring Biden down, even on the margins. 

“I still think him being on the ballot isn’t a good thing for Biden,” said Sawyer Hackett, a senior Democratic strategist and former campaign aide. “Too much of a wild card, especially given Biden’s negatives.”

Some Republican strategists, meanwhile, are hopeful Kennedy could make inroads in places where Biden is currently unpopular, such as Michigan, another state American Values PAC is targeting.

A survey released by Glengariff Group this week shows the incumbent 8 points below water in the state he won last election against Trump. Kennedy has shown progress with African American voters, while Biden has struggled to maintain the grasp he had on core blocs including Black and young voters who made up his coalition, a worrisome factor for Team Biden. Moreover, a USA Today poll of registered voters earlier this month showed that 1 in 5 Black voters surveyed said they would cast their ballots for a third-party candidate. 

“If I was a Democrat. I would be more freaked out than I would be if I was a Republican,” said another GOP strategist, who noted Trump still remains widely popular with large parts of the Republican base. Others in the party also have indicated in polling throughout the cycle that they would vote for him if he’s the nominee. “Anyone who’s going to vote for RFK was looking for somebody else anyways. That looks more like a Biden problem than a Trump problem.”

The upcoming Iowa caucus is also a potential factor for Kennedy and his ability to get more momentum as voting commences. If Trump’s standing is in question after caucusgoers vote, Kennedy could be seen as a viable alternative, some say. But for now, it’s a big if. 

“The people who are considering [someone] other than Trump aren’t necessarily making that move yet,” the GOP operative said. “That’s not to say Iowa can’t flip everything on its head, because it has done that before, historically — but that would be the exception, not the rule here.”