Iowa’s final stretch: What each GOP candidate needs to do

The Republican presidential candidates are starting the final full week of campaigning before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15.

Former President Trump retains a huge polling lead, both nationally and in the Hawkeye State. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley look to be in a close fight for second in Iowa.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie trail behind.

On Wednesday, DeSantis and Haley will meet for the final TV debate before the caucuses, while Trump will hold a televised town hall in Des Moines. Those events will be hosted by CNN and Fox News, respectively.

Here’s where each candidate stands and what they need to do in the final stretch

Former President Trump

Where he stands: Trump is 34 points clear of the rest of the field in Iowa, according to the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. His advantage has increased since last summer, when he was ahead of DeSantis by about 20 points.

What he’s saying: Trump’s bellicose speeches and social media salvos have barely changed at all, except that in recent days, he has added warnings against complacency among his Iowa supporters.

The other notable shift is that Trump and his allies have recently taken more direct aim at Haley, seemingly mindful of her polling rise. His campaign has just released its first TV ad targeting Haley, lambasting her for “weakness” on immigration. A Trump-backing super-PAC has also sought to poke holes in Haley’s record on tax.

Meanwhile, Trump has gleefully attacked DeSantis for his underwhelming campaign performance to date.

What he needs: To win in a landslide.

The main peril for Trump is the possibility that expectations have got out of hand. He is viewed in many quarters as the near-inevitable GOP nominee, and the scale of his polling lead in Iowa means anything less than a blowout win would be seen as a disappointment.

That said, if Trump were to win by 30 points, or anywhere close, it will be very tough to see how he can be beaten for the nomination.

One note of caution: In 2016, Trump lost the Iowa GOP caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas).

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Where he stands: Hanging onto second place in Iowa, barely. DeSantis was a single percentage point ahead of Haley in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average Sunday night.

What he’s saying: DeSantis has become noticeably more aggressive toward Trump in the final stretch. 

In a CNN town hall last Thursday, DeSantis contended Trump “flip-flopped” on abortion to such an extent that he should not be considered “pro-life.” 

He also hit Trump for not having signed an executive order rescinding so-called “birthright citizenship” — the interpretation of the Constitution which holds, basically, that anyone born on U.S. soil is an American citizen. 

“Did he ever sign his name to an executive order when he promised the voters that he was going to do it? Never signed it,” DeSantis said.

Comments like that are a new and sharper extension of DeSantis’s core argument — that his policy goals are very similar to Trump’s but that he would be better at accomplishing them.

What he needs: To come second at all costs.

A third-placed finish would be disastrous for DeSantis, who is much stronger in Iowa than he is in New Hampshire, the second state to vote. If he came third, it would spark some calls for him to get out of the race entirely.

On the flip side, if DeSantis were to pull closer to Trump than expected, he could yet change the narrative of his campaign. 

Such an outcome is not out of the question, in part because the Florida governor has put in the time to visit all of Iowa’s 99 counties and is perceived to have a strong ground game in the state. 

The main super-PAC supporting him, Never Back Down, has been beset by controversy and infighting — but it also claims to have contacted about half of all the homes in Iowa.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley

Where she stands: Nipping at DeSantis’s heels for second in Iowa and, perhaps more importantly, closing the gap with Trump in New Hampshire. 

Two polls from American Research Group in the past month have put Haley just 4 points behind Trump in the Granite State.

What she’s saying: Haley, like DeSantis, is getting more aggressive about Trump. But her argument is subtly different from the Florida governor. 

For a start, Haley emphasizes her electability, noting several polls that have shown her beating Biden by a much wider margin than either Trump or DeSantis. Haley also repeatedly says Trump brings “chaos” with him and that “new generational leadership” is required.

A new Haley ad was released Sunday, stressing the candidate was “not a name from the past” and promising a presidency of “grit and grace.”

That said, Haley has had several missteps recently — a striking change for a candidate who rose in the polls partly on the back of poised debate performances. 

A row over her failure to acknowledge slavery as the central cause of the Civil War went on for days. Then, on Wednesday, she told an audience in New Hampshire their votes could “correct” the outcome in Iowa. 

The following day, speaking at a CNN town hall immediately after DeSantis’s event, Haley insisted she had just been joking. But it’s the kind of remark that could cause problems in Iowa, where the caucuses are taken very seriously.

What she needs: To run DeSantis close, at least.

No one expects Haley to win the caucuses. But she has to remain viable in Iowa and emerge with the sense of momentum intact around her candidacy.

A situation where Haley falls to a distant third would be a big setback for her. On the other hand, if she bested DeSantis for second, she would be going into New Hampshire with the wind at her back.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Where he stands: Well back in fourth place, at about 6 percent in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ Iowa polling average.

What he’s saying: He insists those who are writing him off are in for a shock. In his telling, first-time caucusgoers — who are somehow not being picked up by pollsters — will flock to his corner on Jan. 15.

The plausibility of that theory is highly questionable. And Ramaswamy, a wealthy entrepreneur who has put millions of his personal dollars into his campaign via loans, may be tiring of the effort. His campaign recently canceled all TV advertising.

What he needs: A seismic shock that would suggest he can be more than a gadfly candidate with a penchant for grabbing headlines.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

Where he stands: In fifth place in Iowa, with just 4 percent support according to Decision Desk HQ.

What he’s saying: Christie is betting all his chips on New Hampshire, which is far more hospitable territory for him than Iowa. He is polling in third place in the Granite State. 

So, for the moment, he is maintaining his frontal attacks on Trump, while also contending the other Trump alternatives — DeSantis and Haley — lack moral courage.

But Christie won’t make the debate stage for the final Iowa clash on Wednesday, having failed to meet the polling requirements. That’s a significant blow to the New Jersey governor.

What he needs: A miracle, if he is to be the GOP nominee. But if his real goal is more airtime to make the case against Trump, he needs only stay in the race at least until New Hampshire. 

One complication is that If Haley does conspicuously well in Iowa, calls for Christie to quit the race will grow louder.