Nikki Haley is putting her chips on the center of the board in New Hampshire, a New England state where she has surged into a clear second place behind former President Trump.
Defeating the former president in the Granite State remains a long shot. Haley trails Trump by an average of 30 percentage points, but she has closed the gap in the last month.
Haley has gained about 6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls over the last month, meaning she’s picking up steam at the right time ahead of the Jan. 23 primary.
In Iowa, where caucusgoers will vote eight days before New Hampshire, Haley stands in third place behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). But Haley has gained on DeSantis, setting herself up for a critical run in New Hampshire even if she finishes third in Iowa.
New Hampshire’s political class is watching her closely.
“My vantage point is they’re working very hard, they’re putting in a lot of time, and I think it’s being reflected in what we’re seeing on the ground,” said New Hampshire-based GOP strategist Jim Merrill.
“I don’t think it’s reasonable for any campaign to necessarily think they’d beat Trump here, but I think that she’s positioning herself, kind of slow and steady, build a momentum, which is what you want.”
New Hampshire has always been a priority for Haley, whose team saw the state as a strong potential launching pad for her insurgent campaign.
Haley traveled to New Hampshire for two town halls immediately after she opened her campaign, signaling its importance.
On Tuesday, she won a key endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), a popular incumbent who has served since 2017.
Haley is hoping the endorsement in the home stretch ahead of the primary can help her get a distance from DeSantis and close in on Trump.
A Washington Post-Monmouth University poll found last month that more than 80 percent of New Hampshire registered Republicans and undeclared voters approve of how Sununu is handling his job.
Merrill said Sununu is “hands down” the most popular Republican in New Hampshire and would be a strong advocate for Haley. He said candidates cannot rely on endorsements alone and need to run their own campaign, but Sununu’s support would be a “welcome Christmas gift” for Haley.
“He’s a great spokesman, a great cheerleader, someone who’s done a lot for New Hampshire. So if he decides to endorse Nikki Haley, that’s going to be another shot in the arm for a campaign that’s already beginning to take off,” he said.
New Hampshire Republican strategist Dave Carney said Sununu is “extremely popular” with independents in the state, which presents Haley with an opportunity based on the rules of the New Hampshire primary.
Voters in the primary do not need to be officially registered with one party to participate, and undeclared voters can choose whether to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary.
Carney emphasized that these voters are not monolithic and many will support Trump, but Sununu’s “strongest strength to help the campaign now is to really work hard to get those independents to take a second look at Haley.”
Merrill said he expects greater participation in the Republican primary among undeclared voters this year because they tend to gravitate toward the race “where the action is.” He noted that Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire, which could create some interest, but he has not seen much.
“My expectation is that undeclared voters are more likely to flock to Republican ballots, and for someone like Haley who, indicators are she’s pulled together a broader coalition of conservatives and moderate undeclareds, she could stand to benefit from that over the next few weeks,” Merrill said.
Interestingly, Haley may have to worry more about former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in New Hampshire than DeSantis. DeSantis has been in the mid-to-high single digits recently, while Christie is averaging about 12 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Axios reported Sunday that Haley’s supporters plan to emphasize her appeal to voters turned off by Trump and those who lean more moderate in order to win the independents.
One of the founders of a PAC called “Independents for Haley” told the outlet that it plans to take a “very targeted surgical approach” to increasing turnout from undeclared voters.
It might serve Haley’s interests best if Christie left the race, as some have called on him to do to help consolidate the non-Trump vote.
Republican strategists have said Christie’s supporters would most likely switch to back Haley if he were to leave the race, so he could have a negative effect on her.
New Hampshire GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett said whether Christie could play a spoiler role for Haley in the state is uncertain. He said Christie could possibly get the “Never Trump” wing of the party consolidated behind him, or voters could recognize that even though they appreciate Christie, their vote will be “better served” by backing Haley.
“It seems as if there needs to be a conversation between some of these candidates not being Trump to figure out how this cookie crumbles,” Bartlett said. “And again, if not, the voters will do it, and we’ll see what they say.”