Sununu set to play key role in GOP’s New Hampshire primary

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is set to play a critical role in the Granite State’s first-in-the-nation primary, where Nikki Haley is hoping a strong result could turn her into a real contender for the GOP crown.

Sununu is serving his fourth term as New Hampshire’s governor and remains popular, both with voters and most of the GOP candidates. He’s been on the trail in recent weeks not only with Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but also with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). 

Former President Trump is the huge favorite for the GOP presidential nomination, but Haley is gaining steam and an endorsement from Sununu could be critical for her future. 

“He knows this state. He has relationships. He’s affable. He knows retail politics. He’s been out there with these candidates. He’s positive,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “He knows how to resonate with all different kinds of people, including independents, as well as his media presence. So I think it’s gonna be a big one, I think it will definitely make an impact.”

Sununu has spent time barnstorming the state with Haley, DeSantis and Christie, including most recently last week, when he spent time with each of them within the span of 48 hours.

The governor campaigned with Haley in Hooksett on Monday and later that day with Christie in Nashua. The following day, he campaigned with DeSantis in Manchester. However, he has not confirmed whom he plans to endorse.

“I’ll get behind somebody,” Sununu, who himself mulled a presidential bid before opting against it in June, said in a podcast interview released Tuesday with Puck News’s Tara Palmeri. “I’m not 100 percent sure what I’m going to do yet, I really don’t know.”

Sununu suggested he would likely make an endorsement “in the next couple weeks here.” 

Some Republicans in New Hampshire have speculated the governor will get behind Haley as they assessed the viable paths between her, DeSantis and Christie. 

“I’ve assumed for weeks that it would be Haley for three reasons,” said one Republican operative based in the state. “One, she has firmly taken over as the alternative in New Hampshire. Two, she is positioned well with independents, which is where Sununu has strength. Three, Sununu will not want to play second fiddle to Gov. [Kim Reynolds] in Iowa, so DeSantis was off the table.”

Veteran Republican strategist Dave Carney noted that the challenge for Christie, who has made the Granite State one of his top campaign priorities, was that “he has nothing past New Hampshire” and didn’t have enough infrastructure in other states. As for DeSantis, Carney pointed to the Florida governor’s slipping poll numbers. 

“[It] leaves Haley as the obvious choice,” Carney said, noting her command of retail politics and her rise in the primary.

“I think the vast majority of [independents] will want to play on the Republican side, and [Sununu] is extremely popular with independents. And I think, you know, he could have an ability to get them to take a second look at Nikki Haley,” he said, referring to the fact that New Hampshire independents can choose which primary they want to participate in.

However, other Republicans don’t necessarily see a baked-in endorsement for Haley.

“I can make an argument for any of the three of them,” said Republican strategist Jim Merrill, noting that a Sununu endorsement could boost Haley, who’s generally seen as being in second place in the state, while for DeSantis a Sununu endorsement could offer “nice symmetry” with two early-state governor endorsements. 

“Christie has staked his campaign on New Hampshire, he’s worked hard here. He’s got a loyal following. You know, I think, for him to break through to the next level, and I think be seen as viable here, I think a Sununu endorsement would be impactful,” he added. 

Doug Meyer, a senior adviser to Christie’s campaign, argued that “the one thing that is extremely clear is that there’s only one person in this race who I think [has] consistently matched Gov. Sununu’s position on Trump, and that’s Chris Christie.”

“I think the candidate and the message is way more important than, you know, whether or not you’ve got … field staffers and someone in each state,” he added. “Candidate timing and message carries the day 99.9 percent of the time.” 

Yet Haley has seen the most momentum in the Granite State, at least according to polls. A RealClearPolitics polling average of New Hampshire surveys shows Haley in second place at 18.7 percent support, behind Trump in first place at 45.7 percent. Three months ago, on Aug. 29, that polling average in New Hampshire showed Haley in the single digits and trailing Trump, Christie, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Haley received a recent endorsement from Americans for Prosperity (AFP) Action on Tuesday. The group’s senior adviser Emily Seidel noted in a memo that their endorsement “will put thousands of AFP Action activists and grassroots leaders into the field — with a focus on the early primary states — knocking on doors and urging voters to support Nikki Haley.”

Meanwhile, DeSantis has largely zeroed in on Iowa, where a RealClearPolitics polling average shows him in second place at 17.3 percent support, behind Trump in first place at 47 percent. One survey in late October suggested Haley was tied with DeSantis for second place there, though DeSantis has received several boosts after being recently endorsed by Reynolds and influential Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

Sununu has offered praise to Haley, DeSantis and Christie during the primary, telling Politico in June of Christie that “he just tells it like it is. There’s something authentic about that that I think will connect really well with folks.” He called DeSantis’s first speech in New Hampshire “pretty darn good” in June, according to Politico, while affirming during his recent interview with Palmeri that “Nikki’s surge is real” in the state. 

A source close to the governor stressed that Sununu’s known for making impromptu announcements, and that could happen with his 2024 endorsement, too. The source said that all indicators point to Haley and that Sununu has expressed a desire to pick someone who he believes is a viable alternative to Trump.

Still, while Republicans say that Sununu would be impactful in the New Hampshire primary, others have cautioned that his endorsement alone isn’t going to save the day for any one candidate.

“I think he’ll weigh into Haley, and he’ll give her a boost. But again, it’s not a magic wand. It doesn’t turn into [a] one-person race,” Carney said. “It’s still going to be work. The other candidates are not gonna go home because the governor endorses, and they’re going to work hard to turn out their folks and to keep the non-Trump vote spread across three or four other guys, so that hurts her ability.”