The House majoriity will be on the line in a little less than a year, as newly-minted Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) looks to hold on to his slender majority.
While Democrats are playing defense with the White House and the Senate — where the Democratic majority faces a difficult 2024 map to hold on to the upper chamber — the party thinks it can go on offense in the House and retake the gavel.
To do so, Democrats almost certainly will have to make gains in New York and California, two states where the party has some optimism it can retake ground lost in the past.
Here are nine key races to watch that could decide the majority.
New York’s 17th congressional district
Republicans won the majority in 2022 by winning seats in New York, including Lawler’s.
To win back the majority, Democrats need to take out Republicans like Lawler, whose seat is rated as a “toss-up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates as a “toss-up.”
Lawler narrowly ousted former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair and former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) from the seat in 2022 in one of the biggest GOP victories of the cycle.
Maloney had decided to run in the 17th after a bout of redistricting. The 17th district was slightly more Democratic. It was one of four big victories for Republicans in the state that cycle. President Biden had won the district in 2020 over former President Trump.
Lawler has been one of the more moderate Republicans in the House and was critical of the conservative members who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) earlier this year.
Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who previously represented the district prior to redistricting, announced in July he would run for the seat in 2024.
He gives Democrats a well-known name to run against Lawler, who will be one of the biggest GOP House targets in 2024.
New York’s 3rd congressional district
Scandal-marred Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) was another GOP winner in 2022, but it’s possible he could be expelled long before Election Day. He’s already said he won’t run for reelection.
Democrats are already projected as the favorites to take the district, with Cook rating the race as “lean Democrat.”
New Jersey’s 7th congressional district
Just a little further south, Democrats also hope to make gains be winning back Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s seat in New Jersey.
Kean Jr. ousted then-Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) in 2022 after the district underwent redistricting. So far three Democrats have launched campaigns for the seat, including progressive activist Sue Altman and Roselle Park, N.J., Mayor Joe Signorello, and former State Department official Jason Blazakis.
Cook rates the race as a “toss-up.”
Malinowski lost by less than 10,000 votes to Kean Jr. in 2022 after beating him by just more than 5,000 votes in 2020. Redistricting had made the 7th more Republican, likely contributing to Kean Jr.’s win.
Turnout was much higher in 2020, a presidential election year, and Democrats will be hoping they can turn the tide in the district again in 2024.
California’s 27th congressional district
Like Lawler, Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) represents a district in a blue state that Biden won in 2020.
The district, which includes northern Los Angeles County, is considered a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. In 2022, Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith in the race by 6 points.
Former NASA chief of staff and Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides announced his candidacy for the seat in February.
Michigan’s 7th congressional district
It’s not just battles on the coasts that will determine the House majority.
In Michigan, one key race to watch is in the 7th congressional district, where Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is opening up a race by running for the Senate.
Republican Tom Barrett, who lost to Slotkin in 2022, announced earlier this year that he is running for the seat, while former Michigan state Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr. (D) launched his bid in July.
The district was one of the most closely watched last cycle, but Slotkin defeated Barrett with a comfortable margin of 51 percent to 46 percent.
Cook rates next year’s race as a toss up.
Abortion could be one key issue to watch. Democrats across the country have repeatedly won races by warning that Republicans are set on lowering abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade last year.
Slotkin used abortion rights as a main part of her successful campaign against Barrettt in 2022.
Michigan’s 8th congressional district
Like the 7th district, the 8th congressional district in Michigan will be open and competitive in 2024.
Earlier this month, Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) announced he would not seek reelection. The Cook Political Report subsequently moved the district from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” making this one of the key seats Democrats need to hold on to if they are to win back the House.
Republicans have signaled that they are ready to pounce on Kildee’s absence. He’s served the district since 2013.
Martin Blank, a Republican and a trauma surgeon, launched his bid for the seat last month.
Colorado’s 3rd congressional district
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) is one of the most high-profile Republicans in the House, and surely the most high-profile target for Democrats.
In 2022, she almost lost to Democrat Adam Frisch in what would have been one of the biggest surprises of the cycle.
Boebert ended up narrowly defeating Frisch by more than 500 votes, but the tight race showed she could be vulnerable in 2024.
Controversy after controversy — notably an incident where Boebert was asked to leave a showing of the “Beetlejuice” musical — have compounded her problems.
Frisch is running again for the seat and raised nearly $3.4 million in the third quarter of this year. Boebert raised more than $800,000 during the same period.
The Cook Political Report rates the district as a “toss-up.”
Oregon’s 5th congressional cistrict
Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) is gearing up to defend her seat in Oregon’s 5th congressional district, which she narrowly won in 2022.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up,” and Democrats are already vying to challenge Chavez-DeRemer.
Former Democratic candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer in 2022, has already launched her candidacy. State Rep. Janelle Bynum (D), who has beaten Chavez-DeRemer at the state level twice, jumped into the race in June. Lynn Peterson, who is the council president of Portland’s metro regional government, is also running.
Washington’s 3rd congressional district
The election in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District last year was a surprise for Republicans and Democrats alike after Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) defeated Republican Joe Kent.
Kent notably defeated incumbent GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the district’s GOP primary last year, leading many to think the district would be difficult for any Democrat to win.
However, Perez ended up narrowly defeating Kent by less than a point. Kent is set to run again, but Camas City Council member Leslie Lewallen is also running on the GOP side and has drawn early support.
The Cook Political Report rates the district as a “toss-up.”