Michigan Democrats risk losing both Arab and Jewish voters as Israel divisions deepen

The deepening political divide among Democrats over the Israel-Hamas war is threatening to put the party’s candidates at risk in the critical swing state of Michigan, where Arab and Jewish American voters in the state stand to have an outsized impact in 2024. 

Last week, one of Michigan’s most prominent lawmakers, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D), made headlines when she was censured in the House for her remarks made in a video calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. 

In the same video, Tlaib warned Biden that Arab American voters would not forget his administration’s position on the war a year from now. 

“Mr. President, the American people are not with you on this one,” Tlaib said in the video.“We will remember in 2024.” 

Meanwhile, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has emerged as a vocal critic of Tlaib’s language concerning the issue. 

“It shouldn’t be hard to condemn terrorists and terrorism,” Slotkin told CNN in October following Tlaib’s statement at the time urging Biden to halt funding to Israel a day after Hamas’s attacks on Israel.

Though Slotkin, who’s running for Senate next year, voted against the Tlaib censure, her criticism of a fellow Great Lakes State Democrat underscores the deepening rift in the party and poses challenges for Democrats heading into a heated presidential election year. 

The rift was on full display last week when Tlaib released the video warning Biden of electoral consequences for his stances in 2024. The video included chants of “from the river to the sea,” which critics say is antisemitic and a call for the destruction of Israel.  

“This is the slogan of Hamas and one chanted by the same men who slaughtered 1,400 civilians and kidnapped hundreds more. Language matters. Rep. Tlaib, the words that you use mean something,” said Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D), according to CBS Detroit. “The words that you use mean something, both to the Jewish people and those who wish to destroy the Jewish people. Rashida knows this, she just doesn’t seem to care.” 

Michigan state Sen. Jeremy Moss (D) also condemned the phrase, saying it “has been co-opted as a battle cry for those who want to eradicate Jews who live in Israel from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.”  

Slotkin, Moss and Nessel are Jewish.  

Pro-Palestinian activists, on the other hand, argue that the phrase is a call for Palestinians to live freely.  

“From the river to the sea is an aspirational call for freedom, human rights, and peaceful coexistence, not death, destruction, or hate,” Tlaib said in a social media post alongside the video released last week. “My work and advocacy is always centered in justice and dignity for all people no matter faith or ethnicity.” 

Republicans say Tlaib’s remarks have created an opportunity for them to tie other Michigan Democrats to her, including Reps. Dan Kildee and Hillary Scholten, who are both facing tough reelection bids next year.  

“The notable silence from Tlaib’s Democrat companions like Hillary Scholten and Dan Kildee tells us all we need to know about their willingness to stand up for Israel and Jewish Michiganders,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Michigan voters are watching very closely, and they are seeing effects of the Democrat party’s dangerous, antisemitic agenda.”  

Like Slotkin, Kildee and Scholten have both said they disagreed with Tlaib’s remarks but did not vote to censure her.  

But the divide between these Michigan Democrats also underscores Michigan’s melting pot of ethnic and religious communities. A Pew Research analysis of Census Bureau data found that Arabic speakers in Michigan make up 14 percent of the country’s Arabic-speaking population, while the Detroit-Dearborn-Warren metro area has the most Arabic speakers out of any metro region in the U.S., coming in at 13 percent.  

Tlaib represents Michigan’s 12th Congressional District, which includes much of Dearborn and Dearborn Heights. Her response to the war and staunch support for Palestinians is likely to resonate with much of the district’s Arab population. However, the electoral situation is more concerning for Biden, given his administration’s backing of Israel throughout the conflict.  

Biden’s support among Arab Americans sharply dropped from 59 percent in 2020 to 17 percent, according to polling commissioned by the Arab-American Institute in October after Hamas’s attacks.

Among Michigan Arabs and Muslims, roughly two-thirds said they now think they would vote to replace the president, according to polling from Lake Research Partners. The same poll found that 75 percent of respondents said they would be willing to vote for a third-party candidate.  

And while Michigan’s Arab-speaking and Muslim population is not the majority in the state at roughly 240,000, it could play a deciding factor in a state that Biden only won by a little more than 100,000 votes.  

“You don’t have to have a huge impact on Michigan on the presidential vote to swing how it goes,” said Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist. “A little bit of slippage matters.”  

Still, the presidential election is just under a year out, and Michigan voters will likely be considering other issues. The state was ground zero for the United Auto Workers strike, which Biden appeared at earlier this year. Biden, who refers to himself as the most pro-union president, will likely tout the union’s victory.  

There’s also the question of former President Trump, who is not particularly popular in the Arab American community and other parts of the Democratic coalition.  

“Again, it’s very, very early. Some of his numbers are going to improve once the Republicans nominate Donald Trump, which they pretty clearly are about to do, and that’ll help the president,” Hemond said.  

Michigan’s Jewish population will also wield its influence going into 2024 as the war in the Middle East rages on.  

“There is a whole flip side here,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist. “What has been all too lost in this is American Jews, and I think that you’re going to see it in Michigan,” he continued, citing the Detroit suburbs of Troy and Birmingham. 

“Those are some of the most heavily populated Jewish areas in the country. That is going to be as much of an issue in Michigan as the Muslim American vote,” he said. 

According to a 2021 report from the American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University, Jewish adults make up 1.4 percent of the state electorate. Around 77 percent of the state’s Jewish population lives in congressional districts that include Detroit, Ann Arbor and Lansing, according to the report. Sixty-one percent of Michigan’s Jewish population are Democratic voters or lean Democrat.  

Democrats and Republicans also warn that Tlaib’s stance and rhetoric on the war could lead to a primary challenger against her, pointing to Jewish communities in her district such as Livonia and Southfield.  

But Tlaib has defeated primary challengers before, including last year when she beat three other Democrats competing for her seat.  

And it’s important to note that no voting group is a monolith, including Jewish and Arab Americans.  

“I don’t think that just looking at this in terms of ethnicity and religion gives you a great picture into what’s likely to happen here,” Hemond said.  

But the Israel-Hamas War represents a rarity in U.S. politics: when foreign policy becomes a top priority for voters. Biden and his administration have been walking an incredibly narrow tightrope as he continues to voice support for Israel while acknowledging the rapidly growing humanitarian crisis Palestinians living in Gaza are under as a result of the war.  

“I think that it is possible that Biden will be able to improve his position among Palestinians and among Arab Americans,” said Bernie Porn, a Michigan-based pollster. “But it all depends on how the war goes and how successful he and [Secretary of State Antony Blinken] are.”