Trump leads Biden by 4 points among swing state voters: poll

Former President Trump holds a narrow lead over President Biden among voters in seven key battleground states that will likely determine the 2024 election, according to a poll released Thursday.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of voters from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin found Trump leading Biden by 4 percentage points, thanks largely to negative views around Biden’s handling of the economy.

When broken down by state, Trump is leading Biden in Georgia by 5 points, Arizona by 4 points, North Carolina by 4 points, Wisconsin by 2 points and Pennsylvania by 1 point. Biden leads Trump by 3 points in Nevada, and the two candidates are running even in Michigan, according to the survey.

Across the seven swing states, 49 percent of voters said Bidenomics — the term the White House has used to describe Biden’s economic agenda — is bad for the economy, while 26 percent said it is good.

Among undecided voters in those seven states, 46 percent said Bidenomics is bad for the economy, and 41 percent said they don’t know enough about it or have no opinion.

Another aspect potentially hurting Biden is that 14 percent of voters surveyed who supported the president in 2020 now say they would either back Trump, are undecided or would not vote. 

By comparison, 91 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 said they would do so again, leaving 9 percent who said they would vote for Biden, would not vote or are undecided heading into 2024.

The poll surveyed a total of 5,023 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Oct. 5-10.

The Trump campaign was quick to highlight the latest poll showing the former president leading in swing states, believing it is proof of his strength in a general election despite claims from some of his rivals that he cannot defeat Biden.

The Biden campaign was more dismissive, arguing that polls are not predictive of the future and pointing to the midterm elections and special elections over the past two years, in which Democrats have beat expectations.

“Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don’t take our word for it: last year, Bloomberg, who published today’s poll, predicted a ‘100%’ likelihood of a recession only to say days ago that the U.S. economy is strong and “defying the odds,’” Kevin Munoz, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Or a year out from the 2022 midterms when they similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden.”

Biden is running for reelection and is virtually guaranteed to be the Democratic Party’s nominee, while Trump is the front-runner for the Republican Party’s nomination in 2024, leading the primary field by double digits in the vast majority of state and national polls.

Biden has been hounded for months by voter concerns about his age and his handling of the economy in particular, even as he and White House officials argue the economic picture is much stronger than when he took office, thanks to a boost in jobs and investments in domestic manufacturing.

Trump has been indicted in four separate criminal cases this year, along with a civil trial related to his business practices, and is facing a busy court schedule in the months ahead.

He has been indicted in New York over an alleged hush money scheme to cover up an affair; in Washington, D.C., and Georgia over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results; and in Florida over his retention of classified documents after leaving the White House.