Democrats and Republicans are expecting a close race in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election next month even as polls show Gov. Andy Beshear (D) with a steady lead.
Beshear, one of the most popular governors in the country, is running for a second term against Republican Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s attorney general, in a deeply red state. But Kentucky has a recent history of electing Democratic governors, and polls have largely shown Beshear with at least some multi-point lead.
Still, members of both parties are expecting a tighter contest as Election Day approaches.
“I really do think it’s a much closer race than people may know, and I wouldn’t sleep on it on election night. That’s for sure,” said Kentucky-based GOP strategist Scott Jennings.
On the surface, Beshear is a clear favorite to win reelection.
About half of Republicans in Kentucky approve of the incumbent, according to a July Morning Consult poll — a higher rating than any governor in the country with the opposing party.
Beshear, who served as attorney general before Cameron, also leads his challenger in head-to-head polling. Several recent polls show Beshear outpacing Cameron by a handful of points outside the margin of error, including from a Republican-leaning pollster.
An Emerson College poll from last week showed Beshear with a 16-point lead over Cameron, 49 percent to 33 percent. Beshear’s support included 28 percent of Republicans in that poll.
But Republicans pointed to a trend of Kentucky polls underestimating Republicans’ support and some polls showing a closer race as reasons to expect the polls are not telling the full story of the contest between Beshear and Cameron.
Brandon Finnigan, the director of elections at Decision Desk HQ, described the issue that has plagued Kentucky pollsters for years in a post on Sunday.
He noted the appearance of the strength of Beshear’s numbers in an increasingly red state but also mentioned the close margins of victory of only a few thousand votes that Beshear had during his 2015 attorney general and 2019 gubernatorial elections.
Finnigan reviewed 40 polls from the final months of every major statewide campaign in Kentucky from 2014 to 2022 and found 39 of them underestimated the Republican’s share of the vote. The average difference was 8 points.
Meanwhile, the average difference for the Democratic candidate was only 1 point above the outcome.
The disparity led the Louisville Courier-Journal to end its use of Survey USA in 2015 following a large difference between the polls’ findings and the results.
“For whatever reason, the polls can tell you what the Democrat is going to end up with, but in a two-way race, you’re still missing half of the story,” Finnigan said.
Republican public affairs consultant Tyler Glick, who is based in Kentucky, said only a couple of independent polls have been conducted on the race, and even those will undercount support for Cameron, especially in the Louisville area.
“Obviously it’s a [Democratic] county, but I think there’s a lot of supporters in Louisville that you’re not going to pick up in a poll,” Glick said.
Republicans said Cameron’s strategy has been to tie Beshear to Biden and attack the incumbent for issues like crime rates, inflation and the economy, and social issues like transgender rights. Biden is majorly unpopular in the state, and the Emerson poll found he only had a 22 percent approval rating.
“Safety, jobs and kids. On the things that really matter, Beshear and Biden are one and the same,” says an ad released earlier this week from the Republican Governors’ Association (RGA), which works to elect GOP governors throughout the country.
“Whether it’s rising crime, a failing economy, or a radical transgender agenda, the fact is Kentuckians are worse off under Beshear and Biden,” RGA National Press Secretary Courtney Alexander told The Hill in a statement.
Democrats meanwhile expressed cautious optimism about the state of the race at least in part based on the significant disparity of Beshear outspending Cameron and the polls.
Beshear campaign spokesman Alex Floyd told The Hill that they are preparing for a close race but will keep working to ensure he is reelected.
“Daniel Cameron has run a mean-spirited and divisive campaign, and the more Kentuckians hear about him and his extreme views, the farther he falls,” Floyd said in a statement.
The Hill has reached out to the Cameron campaign for comment.
Emma O’Brien, the state’s press secretary for the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), said reelecting Beshear is the group’s top priority, and they are “keeping their foot on the gas.”
“Gov. Beshear has earned the trust of Kentuckians across party lines because he puts politics aside to do what’s right for Kentucky families like creating good-paying jobs, fighting for higher teacher pay, and legalizing sports betting,” she said.
Beshear received arguably the most praise during his governorship for his handling of natural disasters that have hit Kentucky in recent years, including a series of tornadoes in December 2021 and flooding last year that killed dozens and wiped out many homes.
Beshear sought to console the victims and outline the steps to rebuilding.
“If I had to put my stake on what’s going to win this, it’s just a genuinely good feeling about the human that is Gov. Beshear,” said Democratic strategist Crimson MacDonald, who has been knocking on doors to gather support for Beshear.
MacDonald expressed confidence in Beshear’s path to victory and does not expect it to be a “victory won on the margins.”
MacDonald and fellow Kentucky-based Democratic strategist Matt Erwin said the Emerson poll feels “directionally” correct.
Erwin, who managed Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg’s (D) campaign last year, said he is optimistic because he does not think attacks on Beshear have landed.
“He’s not a Washington liberal. He’s not what they’re painting him out to be,” he said.
MacDonald said Beshear’s first gubernatorial election was a matchup between “Andy of Mayberry,” referencing the well-liked character from “The Andy Griffith Show,” and a “Batman villain,” referring to then-Gov. Matt Bevin (R).
Bevin was an unpopular incumbent who ultimately lost reelection in 2019 to Beshear by about 5,000 votes.
MacDonald said Cameron is “up against Andy of Mayberry, which is a really hard person to turn into a Batman villain.”
But Republicans argued the fact Cameron is not as unpopular as Bevin was and that Beshear only narrowly won in 2019 puts the Republican nominee this year in a strong position.
Glick said Bevin was disliked even by members of his party, but Cameron is a “dynamic” candidate, and people are “lining up” to talk to him at events, unlike Bevin. He said Republican voters will be reminded of unpopular policies of Beshear’s, like his COVID-19 restrictions as Election Day approaches.
Glick argued Beshear has a ceiling that he cannot get to 50 percent of the vote. The governor received just above 49 percent in 2019.
Jennings said the average Kentuckian is not pleased with Kentucky’s economic state and Cameron will hope to nationalize the race so voters recognize that Beshear is supporting Biden for reelection while Cameron is not.
He said Beshear can be personally popular and not necessarily have that equal the people of Kentucky wanting him for another term.
“I think it’s possible for people to believe that Andy Beshear did a nice thing when he showed up and hugged people after a disaster, but they can also simultaneously believe that his policies are wrong for the state,” Jennings said.