Survey shows Lake leading Gallego, Sinema in Arizona Senate race

Failed GOP Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake appears to have a slight lead over Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in a hypothetical three-way contest for Sinema’s seat next year, according to a new poll.

The survey and memo from Republican firm National Research Inc. shows Lake 4 points ahead of Gallego in the match-up — with 37 percent to the Democrat’s 33 percent.

Sinema, the Democrat-turned-Independent incumbent, trails behind with 19 percent. Another 10 percent are undecided.

Another survey released Tuesday, however, from Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, commissioned by Gallego’s campaign and first shared with The Hill, showed the congressman leading in a hypothetical three-way match-up.

In the National Research poll, Sinema and Lake both earned roughly a third of support from independents, a key voting bloc in the state, while Gallego got about a quarter, and another 9 percent were undecided. 

Gallego secured 74 percent of Democrats, while Sinema received just 13 percent. Another 12 percent were undecided.

In a two-way match-up between Lake and Gallego, the poll found a dead heat, with the Democrat and the Republican both earning 44 percent support, with 12 percent undecided.

“The race for U.S. Senate in Arizona is wide open,” according to the National Research memo. “This suggests that once again, all eyes will be on Arizona next year, with control of the Senate in the balance.” 

Conducted Oct. 7-9, the survey from New Jersey-based, Republican research firm National Research Inc. polled 400 likely voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. 

The new polling comes just before Lake is expected to formally announce her run for Senate. She filed paperwork for a Senate bid last week.

“Lake’s campaign announcement is Senate Republicans’ worst nightmare,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters (Mich.) said in a statement.

The Public Policy Polling survey found Gallego with 41 percent — leading Lake and Sinema with 36 percent and 15 percent, respectively. 

Lake is expected to get in the race Tuesday. Gallego is already running, and Sinema has stayed quiet about whether she’ll try for reelection.

Arizona is bracing for a possibly volatile Republican primary and a high-stakes potential three-way race that could help decide control of the Senate in 2024.