Gallego leads Lake, Sinema in Arizona Senate race: poll

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is leading both former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) and Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in a hypothetical three-way race for Sinema’s Arizona Senate seat, according to a new poll. 

A poll from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, which was commissioned by Gallego’s campaign and first shared with The Hill, shows Gallego receiving 41 percent support, Lake receiving 36 percent and Sinema receiving 15 percent in a hypothetical three-way matchup. A separate 8 percent of respondents said they were not sure.

Gallego also polls ahead in several other hypothetical three-way matchups. Between Gallego, Sinema and Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, the Arizona Democrat received 40 percent, Lamb received 31 percent, Sinema received 16 percent and 13 percent said they were not sure.

Between Gallego, Sinema and former Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (R), Gallego received 41 percent, Masters sat at 31 percent and Sinema received 17 percent; 11 percent were not sure.

The poll found, however, that a match-up between only Gallego and Lake would be tighter — Gallego sat at 48 percent, Lake at 43 percent, and 9 percent said they were undecided. The polling difference between Gallego and Lake is just outside of the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. 

Lake is expected to announce later Tuesday that she will be running for the Arizona Senate seat, while Sinema has largely stayed mum on her plans. The incumbent’s political team reportedly circulated a prospectus outlining the voting blocs among Democrats, Republicans and independents that could be pieced together to create a pathway to reelection.

But the polling suggests that Sinema’s pathway will be no easy feat. The Public Policy Polling poll found that while 23 percent said the Arizona independent should run for reelection, while 58 percent said she should not.

Sinema’s favorable rating sat at 26 percent, compared to an unfavorable rating of 52 percent. Gallego’s favorable rating is at 38 percent, with an unfavorable rating of 27 percent, while 35 percent said they aren’t sure — suggesting the Arizona Democrat may largely be unknown to some voters in the state. 

The polling also highlights similarly low views that respondents hold of both former President Trump and President Biden in the Grand Canyon State. Biden has a job approval rating of 41 percent, and Trump has a favorable rating of 39 percent. Trump and Biden look increasingly likely to be headed toward a rematch in 2024.

The Arizona Senate is largely looking like a wild-card race for both parties in the battle over the Senate majority. Though Democrats and Republicans are closely watching the elections of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, where three red state Democrats are up for reelection, Arizona is among a handful of key swing states that will determine control of the upper chamber in 2024. 

The Public Policy Polling, commissioned by Gallego’s campaign, was conducted Oct. 6-7 with 522 Arizona voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.