Gallego leading Lake, Sinema in hypothetical Arizona Senate match-ups: survey

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is leading Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) in a new poll gauging support for a three-way Senate race in 2024 for the seat held by Sinema.

The latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse report from Noble Predictive Insights, formerly OH Predictive Insights, found Gallego in the lead with 34 percent, compared to 26 percent for Lake and 25 percent for Sinema, who left the Democratic Party last year to become an independent.

Another 15 percent in the poll were undecided.  

If Sinema is not in the race, Gallego’s lead grows to 10 percent in a two-way fight, with 45 percent backing the Democrat compared to 35 percent for Lake.

“Congressman Gallego’s strength in head-to-head match-ups shows his appeal across various demographic groups, making him a formidable candidate in this race,” said NPI founder and chief of research Mike Noble in the report.

“However, Senator Sinema’s entry could create a more complex electoral landscape, given her ability to draw support from Independents,” Noble said.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is seen during a press conference on Thursday, May 25, 2023 to discuss the consequences to veterans if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling.

Gallego announced at the start of this year he would lodge a bid for Sinema’s Senate seat after she switched her party affiliation. Sinema hasn’t said whether she’s running for reelection.

Another Republican, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, is running for the seat. Lake, who lost a bid in 2022 to become Arizona’s governor, is eyeing the race, and Blake Masters, a former Senate candidate, has also been seen as a potential GOP candidate.

The new poll found Gallego holding onto the lead against both Lamb and Masters with Sinema in the race.

In a three-way match-up, Gallego earned 33 percent, Sinema 24 percent and Lamb 25 percent, with 18 percent undecided. Gallego earned 32 percent compared to 28 percent for Sinema and 24 percent for Masters, with 16 percent undecided.

“Sinema’s third-party run does not guarantee a GOP victory in Arizona’s Senate race, and what is even more interesting is that [there] appears to be a path to victory for Sinema in a three-way showdown,” Noble said. 

The poll, conducted from July 13-17, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.